Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Indianapolis stakes double

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Nov. 13 at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including tickets for Churchill’s $4,241 Super High 5 carryover.

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• 15% Profit Boost Tokens: Opt in to receive three 15% Profit Boost Tokens (maximum boost of $25 per token) for win wagers at all tracks on Friday, Nov. 13.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $144 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 11/21 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $80 Belmont Park Feeder to 11/20 Churchill Downs CBC Bonus Feeder
• $200 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder to 11/14 Churchill Downs Claiming Crown NHC Qualifier
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $120 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 11/25 Churchill Downs CBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 2: $75,000 Maiden Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:29 p.m. ET)

#1 Bermuda (6-5) debuted with a fourth-place finish in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. The winner, Just for Pipa, followed up with a victory in the six-furlong Bowman Mill S. at Keeneland.

Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 28% rate with second-time starters, and at a 29% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, so Bermuda appears well-spotted to graduate in his second start.

#4 April Fools (9-2) can chase him home and complete the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Bermuda (6-5)
• #4 April Fools (9-2)
• #3 Apexion (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 4

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: Miss Indiana S. (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 5:49 p.m. ET)

#5 Prayer for Music (5-2) has won her last two starts at Horseshoe Indianapolis by daylight margins. She trounced a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight by 8 1/2 lengths, then wired the six-furlong Indiana Stallion S. by 2 3/4 lengths. The latter win yielded a 75 Brisnet Speed rating, one of the highest numbers in the Miss Indiana field.

Prayer for Music’s pedigree suggests she can handle stretching out around two turns, and a bullet five-furlong workout in :59 at Horseshoe Indianapolis last week cements Prayer for Music as the filly to beat. We’ll bet her to win and single her to start a daily double.

Selections

• #5 Prayer for Music (5-2)
• #2 Everyone Talks (8-1)
• #7 Miss Resilient (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Prayer for Music
• $20 Double: 5 with 8
  Total: $40

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 10: Indiana Futurity (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 6:21 p.m. ET)

#8 Kansascityjustice (2-1) hasn’t missed the exacta in four starts, and his last three runs have yielded sharp (and improving) Brisnet Speed ratings of 71, 72, and 75. In his most recent race, Kansascityjustice pressed a quick pace on his way to victory in the six-furlong Crown Ambassador S.

None of the other horses entered in the Indiana Futurity have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 70. If Kansascityjustice brings his A game while stretching out around two turns (and his pedigree suggests he will), then the bay gelding should be tough to defeat.

We’ll bet Kansascityjustice to win and single him to conclude our daily double.

Selections

• #8 Kansascityjustice (2-1)
• #12 Chief of Change (5-1)
• #6 Merrylegs (5-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #8 Kansascityjustice

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $4,241 Super High 5 carryover (1:00 p.m. ET)

Assuming there aren’t any scratches, Race 1 at Churchill Downs on Friday will feature a $4,241 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Super High 5 wagering is offered in all races with seven or more starters at Churchill Downs. Race 1, a $25,000 claimer for two-year-olds, has drawn exactly seven entries, so one scratch will prompt the canceling of Super High 5 wagering and push the carryover into the next race featuring seven or more starters.

If the carryover stays in Race 1, #5 Modern (9-2) is the fastest entrant in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, and we recommend keying him on top in the Super High 5.

Race 1: Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 3,6 with 3,6,7 with 2,3,4,6,7 with ALL ($36)

Modern has only raced once, debuting with a victory at Churchill Downs in a maiden special weight restricted to horses who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction. That race took place over six furlongs on dirt—the same conditions as Race 1—and Modern won by three lengths with a 76 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Friday’s field.

Tackling a $25,000 claimer should suit Modern just fine, and we anticipate he’ll be tough to beat.

Underneath, #6 Mr. Fete (8-1) and #3 Booray (4-1) are logical contenders to emphasize. On Sept. 24, they were separated by four lengths when finishing first and third in a six-furlong $50,000 claimer at Churchill Downs. Mr. Fete was best that day, but he subsequently finished last of six in a $50,000 starter allowance and will need a rebound to factor in Race 1.

Meanwhile, Booray bounced back from his third-place finish to win a 6 1/2-furlong $40,000 claimer at Churchill Downs by a neck, earning a respectable 70 Brisnet Speed rating. He may be ready to turn the tables on Mr. Fete.

If there’s a scratch from Race 1, the Super High 5 carryover will likely shift to Race 2, in which we’ve already outlined #1 Bermuda (6-5) as our top choice. We suggest keying him on top if you’re pursuing the Super High 5 carryover.

Race 2: Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4 with 3,9 with 3,9 with ALL ($10)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3,9 with 4 with 3,9 with ALL ($10)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4 with 3,9 with ALL with 3,9 ($10)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 3,9 with 4 with ALL with 3,9 ($10)
  Total: $40

Good luck!