Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Juveniles at Churchill Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Sept. 12 at Churchill Downs, along with horses to single in five-figure carryovers at Aqueduct and Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Los Alamitos 15% Across the Board Boost: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, every race day at Los Alamitos.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder Friday to 9/13 Woodbine Mile/Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier
• $70 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 9/20 Pennsylvania Derby/Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

During the last two Churchill Downs September meets, trainer Brad Cox has compiled an excellent 6-for-20 (30%) record debuting juveniles on dirt.

This suggests #11 Confessional (6-1) is worth betting to win, especially if his morning-line odds hold up. The son of early-maturing two-time champion Essential Quality has put together a sharp work tab capped off by half a mile in :48 3/5 at Churchill Downs.

Selections

• #11 Confessional (6-1)
• #8 Spun D M C (10-1)
• #12 Circle Tap (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #11 Confessional

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 3:50 p.m. ET)

Churchill Downs debut winner #6 Papa Ken (2-1) is dropping in class after finishing third in the Ellis Park Juvenile S. The top two finishers, Comport and Spice Runner, are both entered in Saturday’s Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Papa Ken is the fastest entrant in Friday’s field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective and looms as the horse to beat. Let’s key him over #8 Just Deeds (5-2) in a cold exacta, then single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #6 Papa Ken (2-1)
• #8 Just Deeds (5-2)
• #7 Ganaas (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 6 with 8
• $10 Double: 6 with 7
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:22 p.m. ET)

#7 Complexed (8-1) has a shot to win on debut in this maiden sprint for juveniles.

A son of early-maturing Champagne (G1) winner Complexity (who sires a sharp 16% winners from first-time starters), Complexed is a half-brother to Plentiful, a 10-time stakes winner best known for taking the 2017 Manitoba Derby.

Complex has posted several fast workouts at Churchill Downs, including a bullet half-mile in :47 4/5, suggesting he has talent. At 8-1, a win bet is in order, and we’ll also single him to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #7 Complexed (8-1)
• #11 Into the Beast (7-2)
• #8 Holy Seven (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Complexed

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 4: $35,123 Pick 6 carryover (2:35 p.m. ET)

On the first day of post-Saratoga racing at Aqueduct, no one hit the $1 Pick 6. As a result, there’s a $35,123 Pick 6 carryover up for grabs on Friday.

The best chance for a single can arguably be found in Race 6, a 1 1/16-mile grass allowance for New York-breds. #5 Sounds Like a Plan (8-5) looms as the horse to beat.

Sounds Like a Plan has competed respectably against stakes competition. During the spring, he carved out the pace in the one-mile Woodhaven S. at Aqueduct before fighting on to finish third by a neck against next-out Penn Mile (G3) winner Dream On. More recently, Sounds Like a Plan ran third by one length in Saratoga’s 1 1/16-mile Rick Violette S. against New York-breds.

Tackling a New York-bred allowance should be a perfect fit for Sounds Like a Plan. At Saratoga last month, he finished second by a head over this distance and class level. Now he’s adding Lasix and returning to the site of his fine try in the Woodhaven, setting the stage for Sounds Like a Plan to deliver victory for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Ricardo Santana Jr. and Horacio De Paz.

Colonial Downs: Race 3: $6,453 Pick 6 carryover (4:56 p.m. ET)
Colonial Downs: Race 4: $24,571 Pick 5 carryover (5:26 p.m. ET)

There are two carryovers to chase at Colonial Downs on Friday. The 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 boasts a $6,453 prize pool, while the carryover for the 50-cent Late Pick 5 is a hefty $24,571.

Need a single to build tickets around? Try #3 Behold the King (1-1), the heavy morning-line favorite to win Race 6, a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden special weight for two-year-olds.

Behold the King has run well twice over this course and class level. In a one-mile contest on July 25, he finished second behind next-out Kitten’s Joy S. winner Casa Cielo, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths while pulling 5 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

Then on Aug. 29, Behold the King rallied from midfield to win an identical race by a neck, only to be disqualified to second place for interfering with a rival.

Behold the King has already beaten three of the seven rivals he’ll face on Friday, and we know he has what it takes to cross the wire first against this caliber of competition. The third time ought to be the charm for this chestnut colt.

Good luck!