Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Juveniles at Churchill, Santa Anita

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, June 12 at Churchill Downs, Santa Anita, and Prairie Meadows, including tickets for Churchill’s $5,371 Super High 5 carryover.

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• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Greenwell (4-1), a son of unbeaten 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline, sold for $500,000 as a yearling. He’s put together a sharp work tab highlighted by a bullet five furlongs in :59 1/5, and he looks ready to vie for victory on debut for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse.

Let’s place a win bet on Greenwell and key him over #3 Never Sleep (7-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #6 Greenwell (4-1)
• #3 Never Sleep (7-2)
• #4 Grand Yaupon (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Greenwell
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 3
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 5:32 p.m. ET)

#1 Nayar (1-1) is an unraced two-year-old conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who wins at a 28% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Nayar has put together a flashy work tab highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the Santa Anita starting gate in :46. As a son of Grade 1-winning juvenile Tiz the Law (who sires 15% winners from first-time starters), Nayar has the pedigree to shine from an early age, so let’s bet him over the fast-working #2 Clear and Present (5-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Nayar (1-1)
• #2 Clear and Present (5-2)
• #6 Billy Goat (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 1 with 2

Prairie Meadows: Race 7: Panthers S. (one mile on dirt, 8:34 p.m. ET)

#1 Grace Is Free (9-5) showed ability during the winter at Oaklawn Park, winning the six-furlong Mockingbird S. and finishing second in the one-mile Valley Of The Vapors S. In between, she finished off the board against tough competition in the Honeybee (G3) and Martha Washington S. on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks.

Grace Is Free recently made her Prairie Meadows debut in the six-furlong Goldfinch S. She rallied from off the pace to triumph by 2 1/2 lengths over a next-out winner.

Stretching back out over one mile shouldn’t bother Grace Is Free, who appears well-spotted to bring her Prairie Meadows record to 2-for-2. Let’s key her over #2 Go to Girl (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Grace Is Free (9-5)
• #2 Go to Girl (5-2)
• #6 Song of Songs (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 2

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 2: $5,371 Super High 5 carryover (1:14 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Friday’s $5,371 carryover in the $1 Super High 5 at Churchill Downs, you’ll have to select the top five finishers in Race 2, a $12,500 maiden claimer for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track.

Wager

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4,5 with 4,5 with 6,7,8 with 2,6,7,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4,5 with 6,7,8 with 4,5 with 2,6,7,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4,5 with 6,7,8 with 2,6,7,8 with 4,5 ($18)
  Total: $54

It’s a tricky race to handicap because none of the eight entrants bring particularly inspiring form to the table. The most accomplished is #2 Joe’s Candy (7-2), runner-up in a maiden special weight at Santa Anita and third in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer at Fair Grounds. But those efforts came on turf, and Joe’s Candy’s two dirt races to date resulted in sound defeats. He exits a distant ninth-place finish in a $20,000 maiden claimer over the Churchill dirt, and we’re not sure dropping to the $12,500 level will be sufficient to trigger a turnaround.

Instead, we’re going to favor #1 Lennie G (9-2). The three-year-old colt showed early speed in a six-furlong $35,000 maiden claimer against his own age group at Gulfstream Park last time out, pressing the pace in third place before tiring in the final furlong to finish fifth, beaten only 2 3/4 lengths.

That effort yielded a 71 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest last-out number belonging to any horse entered in Race 2. There isn’t much pace in this field, so Lennie G has a shot to shake loose up front and lead all the way. We’ll take a stand and key him on top in the Super High 5.

Underneath, we’ll emphasize #4 Don’s Last Ride (3-1) and #5 Next Time (8-1).

Don’s Last Ride was beaten only 9 1/4 lengths when finishing seventh in a 1 1/16-mile $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill last month. Trainer Joe Sharp wins at a lofty 32% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, and five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is named to ride, so look for Don’s Last Ride to deliver a competitive showing on Friday.

As for Next Time, he exits a third-place finish in a $12,500 maiden claimer sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill. He fits well at this class level and should factor for another top-five finish.

Good luck!