Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Juveniles at Ellis Park, Del Mar

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, July 31 at Ellis Park and Del Mar, along with horses to play in carryovers at Colonial Downs and Ellis Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in July.
• 15% Across the Board Boost at Saratoga: Opt in to receive a 15% bonus on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Saratoga each racing Friday in July, from July 10 through July 31.
• Late Pick 5 Insurance at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 5 wagers at Colonial Downs if you have four out of five winning legs, each racing Friday in July.
• 15% Odds Boost at Del Mar: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 on the promotional day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Del Mar each racing Friday in July.
• 15% Odds Boost at GBI Racing: Opt in to receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at select GBI tracks from Monday, July 27 through Friday, July 31.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $68 Saratoga Bet and Set Feeder to 8/2 Saratoga BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $200 Ellis Park Feeder to 8/8 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $240 Saratoga Bonus Feeder Friday to 8/1 Saratoga/Arlington Million SSBC Qualifier
• $40 Saratoga Challenge
• $100 Saratoga Challenge
• $40 Charles Town Challenge
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 8/7 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 2: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 1:19 p.m. ET)

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, #1 Respected Mind (5-1) is the fastest of the experienced fillies in this field of juveniles. After showing some ability against tough rivals in a trio of maiden special weights, she tackled a six-furlong $50,000 maiden optional claimer at Ellis Park and finished third with a 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

Respected Mind has a solid shot to nab victory in her second try at this class level. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Respected Mind (5-1)
• #2 Lily’s Revenge (10-1)
• #7 Seismic Girl (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #1 Respected Mind

Ellis Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:16 p.m. ET)

#7 Woodmere (10-1) is an unraced filly from the barn of Kelsey Danner, who has gone 2-for-2 saddling juveniles at Ellis Park this meet. Both of Danner’s two-year-old winners prevailed in one-mile maiden special weights on turf, and one was a first-time starter.

Danner has been strong with debuting runners this year, going 5-for-22 (23%), and Woodmere may give Danner another win after putting together a sharp serious of workouts at Turfway Park. At 10-1, Woodmere is worthy of a win bet, and we’ll also key her over #2 Dawn Patrol (4-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Woodmere (10-1)
• #2 Dawn Patrol (4-1)
• #8 Ohana Lulu (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Woodmere
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 2
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 6:02 p.m. ET)

#1 Tausret (6-1) is an unraced daughter of American Pharoah, who sires a respectable 13% winners from first-time turf starters. Even better, Tausret is trained by Adam Kitchingman, a 22% winner with horses debuting on turf.

Tausret enters off a fast half-mile workout from the Del Mar starting gate in :46 3/5, suggesting she has talent. Let’s place a win bet on Tausret and key her over #2 Her Names Charlie (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Tausret (6-1)
• #2 Her Names Charlie (3-1)
• #9 Vanta (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Tausret
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $5,727 Pick 6 carryover (2:05 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Colonial Downs includes a $5,727 carryover in the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6, which features a modest 15% takeout rate.

Bettors seeking a single to build tickets around are advised to check out #5 Sister Jean (7-5) in Race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 6.

Race 4 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Sister Jean has shown promise competing against maiden special weight competition at Churchill Downs and may find the competition a bit easier at Colonial Downs.

Two starts back, Sister Jean finished second in a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, beaten only half a length. That race took place around one turn, she’ll stick to a one-turn configuration at Colonial, which is a positive.

Throw in the fact Sister Jean is the co-fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and she appears to have found the perfect spot to break her maiden.

Ellis Park: Race 1: $1,193 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers, in order, in Friday’s opening race at Ellis Park, you can win a share of a $1,193 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a $10,000 claimer for three-year-olds and older horses who have never won two races. The one-mile dirt contest has drawn eight entries, and since many of the entrants bring uninspiring form to the table, #5 Just Like Max (6-1)—the co-fifth choice on the morning line—is a horse you won’t want to leave off your tickets.

Just Like Max has competed exclusively against tougher competition. Two starts back, he finished last of five in a $50,000 claimer at Churchill Downs, but he was beaten only 6 3/4 lengths while earning a 77 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against Friday’s field.

Trainer Genaro Garcia has gone 2-for-4 (50%) at Ellis Park this meet, and jockey Amir Mendoza (a 27% winner teaming up with Garcia over the last two months) is named to ride, so there’s a lot to like about Just Like Max. Don’t be surprised if he wins.

Good luck!