Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Keeneland’s $27,465 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 23 at Keeneland and Santa Anita, including suggested singles for Keeneland’s $27,465 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 4x Rewards Points at Belmont Park: Opt in and receive 4x rewards points on all wagers at Belmont Park each racing Friday in October.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in October.
• $10 Bet Back at Woodbine Thoroughbred: Opt in and receive a Bonus Bet up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second or third in select races at Woodbine each racing Friday and Saturday in October. Bonus bets redeemable only at Woodbine and Woodbine Mohawk.
• $50 Late Pick 4 Insurance for Australian Racing: Opt in to receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 4 wagers at select Australian racetracks if you have three out of four winning legs.
• 4% Cash Back on Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge: Opt in and receive 4% cash back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) entry purchased through TwinSpires when you have previously competed in any BCBC qualifier, hosted by TwinSpires or any other operator.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $120 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $200 Laurel Park Qualifier to 10/24 Maryland Million Day Handicapping Challenge
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $200 Belmont Park Feeder to 11/7 Churchill Downs CBC Qualifier
• $400 Keeneland Bonus Feeder to 10/24 Keeneland BCBC Bonus Qualifier
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $150 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Charles Town Feeder to 10/25 Churchill Downs BCBC Bonus Qualifier
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:40 p.m. ET)

#3 Justico (7-2), an unraced son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, has put together an eye-catching work tab highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the Santa Anita starting gate in :46 3/5. The chestnut colt looms as a threat to win on debut for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who strikes at a 34% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

At 7-2, Justico is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #3 Justico (7-2)
• #8 T V Time Out (9-2)
• #1 Tarkanian (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #3 Justico

Santa Anita: Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 4:00 p.m. ET)

#1 Corkscrew Andy (4-1) hasn’t finished better than eighth in a trio of starts against maiden special weight competition, but he’s earned respectable Brisnet Speed ratings in the 77-81 range that fit well against this $50,000 maiden claiming field.

Dropping in class might be all Corkscrew Andy needs to graduate. It helps that trainer Richard Mandella wins at a 23% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

Let’s bet Corkscrew Andy to win and key him over heavy favorite #2 Mighty Toro (1-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Corkscrew Andy (4-1)
• #2 Mighty Toro (1-2)
• #4 Fausto (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Corkscrew Andy
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 2
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 2: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on dirt, 4:29 p.m. ET)

#6 Spider John (10-1) hasn’t factored in two starts sprinting at this class level, but he was bumped around at the start in both races. A clean break while stretching out over one mile could potentially trigger a step forward, especially since Spider John’s pedigree suggests he’ll appreciate running long.

Let’s place a win bet on Spider John. 

Selections

• #6 Spider John (10-1)
• #4 Johnny B (2-1)
• #5 Inca (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Spider John

Carryover Watch

Keeneland: Race 5: $27,465 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)

The Keeneland fall meet is winding down, but the racing and betting action remains strong. Friday’s card features two stakes and a $27,465 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The Pick 6 spans Race 5 through Race 10, so it encompasses Race 6, the maiden special weight in which we rank #3 Justico (7-2) as our top choice.

The question is, should Pick 6 players single Justico? It’s a risky proposition considering Race 6 contains 14 horses (including two also-eligible entrants), and 11 of them are first-time starters without any racing form to analyze. But Justico’s profile is compelling, and the risk vs. reward of singling Justico could pay off by sharply reducing ticket costs, allowing bettors to spread deeper in other legs.

Of course, if you’d rather not single a first-time starter in a large field, an alternative single with a solid shot at victory is #5 Sister Troienne (6-5) in Race 9, the Valley View (G3) for three-year-old fillies racing one mile on turf.

Sister Troienne has competed with aplomb against stakes competition. She won the Wait a While S., Ginger Brew S., and Sweetest Chant S. in succession before finishing second by a head in the Herecomesthebride (G3).

Following a respectable fifth-place finish in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland (where she was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths), Sister Troienne took six months off from racing. She returned to action in the Oct. 1 Winter Memories (G3) at Belmont Park and ran well in defeat. Early in the homestretch, she had to wait in traffic behind rivals, and by the time she found room, it was too late to catch the victorious Shelzawa. Nevertheless, Sister Troienne rallied strongly in the closing strides to finish second by three-quarters of a length.

There’s no shame in losing to Shelzawa with a troubled trip. Shelzawa has won three starts in a row for trainer Chad Brown and could potentially be a Grade 1 runner in the making.

If Sister Troienne works out a clean trip in her second start back, she can return to the winner’s circle and secure her first win at the graded level.

Good luck!