Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Oaklawn’s $10,594 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, and Turfway Park, along with analysis of Oaklawn Park’s $10,594 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 15% Odds Boost at Turfway Park: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Turfway Park each racing Friday in December.
• Woodbine Mohawk 15% Odds Boost: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 for the day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Woodbine Mohawk on Friday, Dec. 26.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $70 Oaklawn Challenge
• $400 Oaklawn Bonus Feeder Friday to 12/27 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $100 Fair Grounds Feeder to 1/3 Jerome/Smarty Jones KDBC Qualifier
• $200 Turfway Park Feeder to 1/10 Fair Grounds/Tampa Bay Downs KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $70 Turfway Park Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $40,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#7 Special Sauce (9-5) has shown ability in her first three starts against tougher competition. Last time out, she finished a pacesetting fourth (beaten only 2 3/4 lengths) in a six-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds.

Trainer Larry Rivelli wins at a 33% rate with horses running at the claiming level for the first time, so dropping in class should send Special Sauce to the winner’s circle.

#1 Queen of Queens (4-1), fourth in a $50,000 starter allowance at Churchill Downs last month, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Special Sauce (9-5)
• #1 Queen of Queens (4-1)
• #2 Authentic Angel (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Special Sauce
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 1
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 2:48 p.m. ET)

#1 Gus Swayze (5-2) debuted with a runner-up finish in a quick six-furlong maiden special weight for Florida-breds at Gulfstream. He earned a respectable 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Brendan Walsh wins at a solid 17% rate with horses running long for the first time, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 30% winner teaming up with Walsh over the last two months) is named to ride. There are enough positives in Gus Swayze’s corner to warrant betting him to win and keying him over #4 The Town (8-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Gus Swayze (5-2)
• #4 The Town (8-5)
• #6 Hawk (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Gus Swayze
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
  Total: $25

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

Trainer Eoin Harty has been on fire at Turfway this meet, going 4-for-4 (100%). We’ll see if he can keep his momentum going with first-time starter #11 Winter Holiday (5-1).

A two-year-old son of Frosted, Winter Holiday, enters Race 5 off fast workouts at Turfway, including a bullet five furlongs in :58 3/5. He’s worthy of a win bet under hot jockey Walter Rodriguez, and we’ll also mix in an exacta using longshot #3 Circle Me (12-1) for second place.

Selections

• #11 Winter Holiday (5-1)
• #3 Circle Me (12-1)
• #12 Join (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #11 Winter Holiday
• $5 Exacta: 11 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Oaklawn Park: Race 5: $10,594 Pick 6 carryover (3:24 p.m. ET)

The first post-Christmas racing day at Oaklawn Park is highlighted by a non-jackpot $10,594 carryover in the $1 Classix Pick 6.

At first glance, one of the trickiest Pick 6 legs to handicap is Race 5, a $50,000 maiden claimer for Arkansas-bred juveniles sprinting six furlongs. The large 12-horse field contains seven first-time starters, so there isn’t much form to analyze.

Fortunately, two of the experienced runners look strong on paper. The first is #8 Midnight Whirl (2-1). He’s dropping into the state-bred ranks after debuting with a slow-starting, sixth-place finish in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs. The winner, Misinformation, returned to take a $50,000 starter allowance at Keeneland in his next start, while runner-up Perfect Audible came back to win a $50,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland. It’s safe to say Midnight Whirl met a quality field on debut.

Midnight Whirl is now adding blinkers, which could sharpen his early speed and lead to an improved performance.

The only other Race 5 entrant we recommend using in the Pick 6 is #4 Igniting Embers (6-1). While he misfired in a recent maiden special weight for Arkansas-breds at Oaklawn, finishing ninth, during the summer, he was good enough to run second in a non-state-restricted maiden special weight at Canterbury Park.

Igniting Embers has run faster than Midnight Whirl on the Brisnet Speed rating scale and may be able to spring an upset while dropping in class.

The featured event in the Pick 6 sequence is Race 8, the 1 1/16-mile Pippin S. for fillies and mares. #6 Standoutsensation (9-5) is a logical favorite after winning three straight races at Saratoga, Churchill Downs, and Aqueduct, including the Turnback the Alarm S.

But don’t underestimate defending Pippin winner #3 Corningstone (2-1). She returns to Oaklawn in strong form, having earned a career-best 97 Brisnet Speed rating when second in the Falls City (G3) at Churchill Downs last month. That 97 is four points higher than Standoutsensation’s career-best number, so a repeat should give Corningstone a strong chance to defend her Pippin title.

We recommend using both Standoutsensation and Corningstone in the Pick 6.

Good luck!