Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Santa Anita’s $157,177 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, May 1 at Churchill Downs, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita, including horses to bet in Santa Anita’s $157,177 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $250,000 Single Winner Bonus Jackpot 8: Play the Jackpot 8 on TwinSpires each Churchill Downs racing day through May 1 for a chance to win a Single Winner Bonus of $250,000 for any single winner of the Jackpot 8.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Challenge (Races 1-6)
• $100 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Challenge (Full Card)
• $50 Churchill Downs Bet and Set Challenge (Races 7-13)
• $1,000 Kentucky Oaks Betting Challenge ($25,000 Cash Added)
• $50 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $300 Churchill Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Godolphin homebred #6 Passerine (8-1) has a chance to win on debut for trainer Brad Cox, who strikes at a 21% rate with first-time starters. Passerine’s half-sister, Emboldened, was a capable stakes-winning sprinter who placed third in the seven-furlong La Brea (G1).

Passerine has turned in a lengthy series of workouts over the slow training track at Payson Park, suggesting she’ll be fit for a competitive debut under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. If her 8-1 morning-line odds hold up, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Passerine (8-1)
• #4 Couplet (6-1)
• #1 Hedge Book (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Passerine

Aqueduct: Race 6: Sheepshead Bay (G3, 1 3/8 miles on turf, 4:12 p.m. ET)

In a field lacking any obvious frontrunners, #2 Storm Miami (6-1) is an intriguing contender. She’s shown tactical speed in shorter races and could find herself on an uncontested lead while stretching out over 1 3/8 miles.

Let’s box Storm Miami in the exacta with logical favorite #3 No Show Sammy Jo (1-1), spending more on the lower-paying combination with No Show Sammy Jo on top.

Selections

• #2 Storm Miami (6-1)
• #3 No Show Sammy Jo (1-1)
• #5 Dona Clota (5-2)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 3 with 2
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $20

Santa Anita: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 7:55 p.m. ET)

Trainer Steve Knapp won the first two juvenile races of 2025 at Santa Anita. On Thursday, he nabbed Santa Anita’s first juvenile race of 2026 with heavy favorite Dream Quest.

Knapp has a strong chance to win Santa Anita’s second juvenile race of 2026 with #8 Saluto (9-2). The bay colt enters off a quick half-mile workout from the Santa Anita starting gate in :47 4/5, and he’s slated to be ridden by hot jockey Antonio Fresu, a 27% winner teaming up with Knapp over the last two months.

Let’s place a win bet on Saluto and play him over #3 Jonny’s Cap (6-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #8 Saluto (9-2)
• #3 Jonny’s Cap (6-5)
• #7 Keepsmesane (7-2)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #8 Saluto
• $8 Exacta: 8 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Santa Anita: Race 3: $157,177 Pick 6 carryover (7:20 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved for two racing days in a row, Santa Anita’s traditional $2 Pick 6 has generated a massive $157,177 carryover for Friday’s card. 

The final pool is expected to reach the $1 million range.

The Pick 6 spans Races 3-8, a competitive sequence featuring 63 horses (averaging 10.5 per race) and a lofty 1,135,680 possible outcomes before scratches. However, eight of the horses are also-eligible entrants, so the Pick 6 should reduce meaningfully in complexity after scratches.

We’ve already handicapped the second leg of the sequence: Race 4, the maiden special weight for juveniles in which we rank #8 Saluto (9-2) as the horse to beat off a fast half-mile workout. However, #3 Jonny’s Cap (6-5) has likewise trained with promise, and Pick 6 bettors may wish to include them both.

Bettors in search of a trustworthy single to reduce ticket costs are advised to check out Race 7. The penultimate leg of the Pick 6 is a $5,000 claimer taking place over one mile on dirt, and the conditions should perfectly suit #4 Leyas Candy (7-5), a seven-year-old gelding dropping in class.

Leyas Candy boasts a 19-4-5-2 record racing one mile on dirt. He’s run well a few times over this exact track and distance since last fall. He’s finished second by narrow margins in $16,000 and $12,500 claimers, and just last month he ran second in an $8,000 claimer, earning a sharp 86 Brisnet Speed rating that towers over the par winning number (78) for Friday’s conditions.

None of the other Race 7 entrants have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 80 in their last three starts apiece. #1 Jeweled Shillelagh (5-1) posted ratings in the 86-92 range in 2025, but those numbers were earned on turf, and Jeweled Shillelagh has since regressed.

In short, if Leyas Candy brings his A game on Friday, he can cruise to victory as a short-priced Pick 6 single.

Good luck!