Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Santa Anita’s $198,741 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Feb. 27 at Turfway Park, along with a horse to single in Santa Anita’s $198,741 Pick 6 carryover.

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• 5x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Receive 5x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing Friday in February.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $160 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/14 Virginia Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier
• $40 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $320 Oaklawn Bonus Feeder Friday to 3/1 Rebel KDBC Qualifier
• $70 Oaklawn Challenge
• $70 Turfway Park Challenge
• $200 Turfway Park Feeder to 3/7 Tampa Bay Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Turfway Park: Race 2: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Lion Guard (20-1) showed little when debuting in a maiden special weight racing about one mile on turf at Churchill Downs, trailing almost all the way to finish last of 11. But now he’s switching to Tapeta, dropping in class, adding Blinkers, and racing on Lasix for the first time, a combination of changes that could trigger major improvement.

This field hasn’t come up overly tough on paper, so let’s take a shot betting Lion Guard to win.

Selections

• #4 Lion Guard (20-1)
• #3 No Hay Dos (2-1)
• #8 Petoskey Stones (3-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #4 Lion Guard

Turfway Park: Race 5: $62,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

#2 Mercante (2-1) boasts a 3-for-4 record at Turfway Park, which includes a triumph in the 2025 Kentucky Cup Classic (G3). In that race, Mercante tracked the pace before taking over to defeat an accomplished field with a powerful 107 Brisnet Speed rating.

Since then, Mercante has competed exclusively on turf. He wrapped up 2025 with a third-place finish in the River City (G3) and should relish returning to Turfway for a $62,500 allowance optional claimer.

Let’s bet Mercante to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #2 Mercante (2-1)
• #10 Judge Davis (8-1)
• #4 Wadsworth (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Mercante
• $15 Double: 2 with 6
  Total: $35

Turfway Park: Race 6: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Dedos (8-5) recently ended a long layoff with a respectable showing in a 5 1/2-furlong $15,000 maiden claimer at Turfway. Despite breaking slowly and dropping nearly nine lengths off the pace, she gained a lot of ground down the homestretch to finish fourth by 3 1/4 lengths.

A sharper start while dropping down to the $7,500 level should make Dedos tough to beat for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward. Let’s single Dedos to conclude our double wager, then bet her over #4 Mother Volga (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Dedos (8-5)
• #4 Mother Volga (7-2)
• #2 Upscuttled (10-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 6 with 4

Carryover Watch

Sunset Six: $69,685 Pick 6 carryover (3:53 p.m. ET)

The Sunset Six, a special $1 Pick 6 comprised of the final three races apiece at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, has tossed up a lucrative $69,685 carryover for Friday.

Bettors seeking a single to build tickets around are advised to check out the Santa Anita portion of the sequence. Leg E—Race 8 at Santa Anita—is a one-mile maiden special weight in which we’re confident #3 Cherokee Nation (2-1) will deliver a winning run.

Purchased for $1.15 million as a yearling, Cherokee Nation has shown flashes of talent for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. He’s started twice in one-mile maiden special weights at Santa Anita. On Oct. 13, he carved out the pace and battled gamely down the homestretch to finish second by a nose against Mr. A. P., who subsequently ran second against a strong field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

On Jan. 9, Cherokee Nation overcame a poor start to rally through fast finishing fractions and finish second by half a length. The third-place finisher, Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) runner-up Blacksmith, flattered the form by returning to win his next start at the maiden special weight level.

In addition to those promising performances against maiden special weight competition, Cherokee Nation earned Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points via fifth-place finishes in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Robert B. Lewis (G3). He’s been treated like a good horse right along, and returning to the maiden ranks should allow Cherokee Nation to secure his first career victory.

Santa Anita: Race 4: $198,741 Pick 6 carryover (5:04 p.m. ET)

The Sunset Six carryover might be enticing, but the prize pool up for grabs in Friday’s traditional $2 Pick 6 at Santa Anita is even larger: $198,741.

The sequence gets underway in Race 4 and encompasses the above-mentioned Race 8 in which we rank #3 Cherokee Nation (2-1) as the horse to beat. Just like in the Sunset Six, we recommend singling Cherokee Nation in Santa Anita’s $2 Pick 6.

Turfway Park: Race 10: $5,367 Super High 5 carryover (8:25 p.m. ET)

The final race on Friday at Turfway Park features a $5,367 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 10 is a $7,500 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies sprinting five furlongs on Tapeta. We favor the chances of #9 Easter Sonata (6-1) at a bit of a price. She debuted in a $25,000 maiden claimer sprinting five furlongs on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing fifth out of nine. She came home only three lengths behind runner-up Jr Sweet Feet, who returned to win her next start in a $40,000 maiden claimer.

Easter Sonata is trained by Peter Eurton, a strong 23% winner with second-time starters. Adding Lasix, dropping in class, and switching to Tapeta can send Easter Sonata to the winner’s circle, so we recommend keying her on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!