Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Saratoga, Colonial Pick 6 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, July 11 at Colonial Downs and Saratoga, including horses to play in a pair of Pick 6 carryovers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Los Alamitos 15% Win Bonus: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on your winning single-horse win wagers at Los Alamitos each racing date in June and July.
• Saratoga $5,000 Friday Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Play the early, middle, or late Pick 4 at Saratoga for a chance to split a $1,000 prize pool for each Pick 4 sequence. Hit any two Pick 4 sequences on the day and split an additional $2,000.
• Hastings 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Hastings to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Hastings every racing day in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $75 Newmarket Challenge
• $160 Woodbine Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier
• $200 Colonial Downs Feeder to 7/14 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $50 Colonial Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:00 p.m. ET)

#3 Destination (5-2) hasn’t missed the trifecta in four starts, including a couple of maiden special weights at Laurel Park. She has tactical speed, boasts sharp Brisnet Speed ratings, and is dropping blinkers for her return from a 15-month layoff.

Since trainer Brittany Russell wins at a 28% rate with horses coming back from layoffs of 90 days or more, and at a 35% rate with horses removing blinkers, Destination offers plenty of appeal. We’ll bet her to win and key her over #6 Alyvia Mavis (2-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Destination (5-2)
• #6 Alyvia Mavis (2-1)
• #3 Determined Achoti (3-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #3 Destination
• $6 Exacta: 3 with 6
  Total: $30

Saratoga: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:02 p.m. ET)

Two-year-old #1A Honoree (7-2) is a threat to win his first start for trainer Shug McGaughey, who has compiled an excellent 5-for-14 (36%) record debuting juveniles in turf routes at Saratoga since 2020.

A half-brother to Vergara, who won the Ladies Marathon (G3) on turf at Kentucky Downs, Honoree enters off a half-mile workout over the Saratoga training track turf course and is slated to be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1A Honoree (7-2)
• #2 Signatory Man (3-1)
• #8 Helioo (15-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1A Honoree

Colonial Downs: Race 2: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:30 p.m. ET)

#6 Our Day Will Come (5-2) has put together a promising work tab for trainer Phillip Capuano, who wins at a 23% rate with first-time starters. As a son of St Patrick’s Day (who sires a healthy 18% winners from first-time starters), Our Day Will Come has the potential to shine from an early age.

Let’s place a win bet on Our Day Will Come, then add an exacta using #2 Now Teddy (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #6 Our Day Will Come (5-2)
• #2 Now Teddy (6-1)
• #1 Max Capacity (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Our Day Will Come
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Saratoga: Race 5: $118,028 Pick 6 carryover (3:27 p.m. ET)

The betting highlight of Friday’s card at Saratoga is a massive $118,028 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

We’ve already handicapped one leg of the sequence. Race 6, the second leg of the Pick 6, is the above-mentioned maiden special weight in which #1A Honoree (7-2) is a compelling contender. The fact he’s coupled in the betting with #1 British Invasion (7-2), a well-bred first-time starter from the hot barn of Miguel Clement, adds to the appeal.

#2 Signatory Man (3-1) is another horse worth including on Pick 6 tickets. He debuted with a rallying (and troubled) fourth-place finish in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs turf course. Stretching out over one mile for his second start could trigger improvement.

The feature event on the card is Race 7, the Coronation Cup (G3) for three-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. #1 Make Haste (2-1), from the Clement barn, has a strong chance to shine. The British-bred filly found only minimal success competing in Europe as a juvenile, but she’s improved competing stateside this year. After finishing fourth off a layoff in the Melody of Colors S. at Gulfstream Park, Make Haste set blazing pace fractions of :20.94 and :43.51 on her way to winning a five-furlong $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream by 4 3/4 lengths.

From the rail draw, we anticipate Make Haste will make the lead and quite possibly never look back in the Coronation Cup. However, Pick 6 bettors may wish to include Melody of Colors winner #3 Cloe (5-2) as backup.

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $7,919 Pick 6 carryover (5:40 p.m. ET)

Bettors chasing Friday’s $7,919 carryover in the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs won’t want to leave #12 Deuteronomy (7-2) off their tickets.

Deuteronomy is entered in Race 8, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for horses racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. The four-year-old son of Kitten’s Joy enters in strong form; after rallying to win maiden special weight and allowance races at Tampa Bay Downs, he finished second by 1 3/4 lengths in a $32,000 allowance optional claimer.

Those form lines stamp Deuteronomy as a logical contender on Friday, and take note, he’s conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, who has gone 19-for-62 (31%) at Colonial Downs since 2020. McGaughey’s strong record at this track cements Deuteronomy as a must-use horse in the Pick 6, and for good measure we’ll place a win bet on the gray colt:

• Race 8, $25 to win on #12 Deuteronomy

Good luck!