Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Single for Aqueduct’s $25,972 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Sept. 26 at Gulfstream Park and Churchill Downs, along with a horse to single in Aqueduct’s $25,972 Pick 6 carryover.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:25 p.m. ET)

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has excelled debuting juveniles on dirt at Gulfstream Park this year, going 5-for-12 (42%).

This stat points to #4 Bull by the Horns (2-1) as a formidable win threat. The son of two-time champion Essential Quality enters off a sharp series of half-mile workouts at Gulfstream and is slated to be ridden by jockey Micah Husbands, a 22% winner teaming up with Joseph over the last two months.

A large win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Bull by the Horns (2-1)
• #5 Pax Mundi (8-5)
• #6 Candy Addiction (7-2)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #4 Bull by the Horns

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:50 p.m. ET)

Unraced #8 Reckless (12-1) is a two-year-old son of juvenile Grade 1 winner Maxfield, who is siring 26% winners from first-time starters. He’s assembled a respectable work tab at Churchill Downs for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, capped off by five furlongs in 1:00 2/5.

These facts suggest Reckless has a chance to outrun his 12-1 morning-line odds, so let’s try a win bet on the dark bay or brown colt. 

Selections

• #8 Reckless (12-1)
• #3 Prime Suspect (7-2)
• #11 Spirit of Royal (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Reckless

Gulfstream Park: Race 8: Hallandale Beach S. (one mile on dirt, 4:37 p.m. ET)

#5 Willow Case (5-2) is stretching out in distance after pouncing from a couple length off a quick pace to win the six-furlong Sharp Susan S. at Gulfstream Park by 3 1/4 lengths.

That win earned a 90 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in the Hallandale Beach field. Willow Case’s pedigree suggests she’ll handle one mile just fine, so let’s key her over #6 Vita Mia (9-5) in a cold exacta. The latter filly exits a decisive win in a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream.

Selections

• #5 Willow Case (5-2)
• #6 Vita Mia (9-5)
• #3 Tessellate (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 6

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 4: $25,972 Pick 6 carryover (2:35 p.m. ET)

One of the most lucrative carryovers to pursue on Friday is the $25,972 prize pool up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6 at Aqueduct.

The six-race sequence contains a bevy of large fields. A couple of races are packed with also-eligible and main-track-only entrants.

The competitive nature of this Pick 6 is why we recommend singling #5 Randomized (1-2) in Race 7, the Beldame (G2). The historic 1 1/8-mile stakes for fillies and mares has drawn only five entries, so it’s an ideal spot to seek a single. And if Randomized brings her A game, she’ll be mighty tough to beat.

When Randomized is at her best, she ranks among the best in her division. As a three-year-old in 2023, she wired the Alabama (G1) and Beldame by daylight margins before finishing second by half a length in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). Then, during an abbreviated 2024 campaign, she added the Ogden Phipps (G1) to her tally.

Randomized struggles with consistency at times, and she exits a distant sixth-place finish in the Personal Ensign (G1) against reigning Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. But two starts back, Randomized proved clearly best in the Molly Pitcher (G3), winning by three lengths with a 97 Brisnet Speed rating that ranks as her best number since 2023.

There isn’t much pace entered in the Beldame, so Randomized—who has scored all six of her career wins in gate-to-wire fashion—should have every chance to secure an uncontested lead. That might be all she needs to rebound with a winning performance. Take note, her worst defeats have come in races where she was either beaten to the lead or challenged for early supremacy.

Since Randomized appears poised to receive her ideal trip, we feel confident recommending her as a Pick 6 single. It helps that she’s reuniting with hot jockey Flavien Prat, who guided Randomized in the Molly Pitcher.

Good luck!