Friday’s Best Bets, Quick Picks, and Churchill's Super High 5 Carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Sept. 19 at Churchill Downs and Aqueduct, including tickets for Churchill’s $14,209 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Los Alamitos 15% Across the Board Boost: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 per day) on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, every race day at Los Alamitos.
• 8x Points on Presque Isle Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Presque Isle Downs on Friday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $70 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $400 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder Friday to 9/20 Pennsylvania Derby/Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $200 Presque Isle Downs Feeder to 9/27 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Presque Isle Downs Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#10 Tagermeen (2-1) knocked heads with tough rivals in his first two starts against maiden special weight competition at Saratoga. Those races were won by Ted Noffey and Curtain Call, who returned to run first and third in Saratoga’s Hopeful (G1).

Chances are, Tagermeen will find the competition a bit easier in his third start for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Let’s wheel him in exacta tickets with the first-time starters #1 Astound (10-1) and #7 White Tiger (5-1).

Selections

• #10 Tagermeen (2-1)
• #1 Astound (10-1)
• #7 White Tiger (5-1)

Wagers

• $9 Exacta: 10 with 1,7 ($18)
• $6 Exacta: 1,7 with 10 ($12)
  Total: $30

Aqueduct: Race 6: Joseph A. Gimma S. (six furlongs on turf, 3:37 p.m. ET)

From a Brisnet Speed rating standpoint, the fastest entrant in this field of New York-bred juveniles is #5 Sweet Montreal (8-1). She posted an 86 when employing pace-pressing tactics to win a 5 1/2-furlong grass maiden special weight at Saratoga.

The form of that effort was flattered when third-place finisher Dancingwithdestiny returned to win her next start over the same class level.

Sweet Montreal’s 8-1 morning-line odds are enticing, so let’s bet her to win.

Selections

• #5 Sweet Montreal (8-1)
• #9 Sacred Goddess (5-2)
• #8 Grazie (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Sweet Montreal

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Lady Iva (4-1) debuted with a solid runner-up finish in a 5 1/2-furlong turf maiden special weight at Ellis Park. After staying within two lengths of a quick pace, she advanced to finish second by half a length, earning an 88 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Friday’s field.

As a daughter of Uncle Mo out of a mare by Scat Daddy, Lady Iva has the pedigree to shine while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles. It helps that she’s trained by Bret Calhoun, a 20% winner with horses running long for the first time.

Let’s place a win bet on Lady Iva, then play her over #8 Caviar Breakfast (5-2) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #1 Lady Iva (4-1)
• #8 Caviar Breakfast (5-2)
• #6 Tricky Kitty (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Lady Iva
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 8
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $14,209 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers, in order, in Friday’s opening race at Churchill Downs, you can win a share of a $14,209 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction. The one-mile dirt race is tricky to handicap because, oddly, four of the eight entrants have never run on dirt.

Our top choice is #3 Scooch Over (6-1), a three-year-old filly with experience on dirt. She’s run once, debuting on Aug. 18 in a one-mile maiden special weight against older rivals at Ellis Park. After rating off the pace, she passed a couple of rivals to finish third by four lengths.

Scooch Over is trained by Kenny McPeek, who wins at a 15% rate with second-time starters and at an 18% rate with horses running long for the second time. We anticipate Scooch Over will move forward on Friday, opening the door for a winning run under jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., a 26% winner teaming up with McPeek over the last two months.

#2 Plaza Cue (2-1), a second McPeek trainee, warrants respect too. The three-year-old filly ran second in a couple of maiden special weights at Oaklawn Park during the winter, but hasn’t run since April. She’s the fastest entrant in Race 1 from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and if she’s matured at all during her time away, she can easily get involved for a top-three finish and possibly even challenge for victory.

We’ll also emphasize #4 Churning Berni (5-2). She’s cracked the trifecta in several maiden special weights at Churchill Downs and has a strong chance to do so again.

Among the fillies trying dirt for the first time, #8 Donita (15-1) is intriguing. She earned a sharp 87 Brisnet Speed rating when debuting with a pacesetting second in a $16,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf. Her pedigree suggests switching to dirt won’t be an issue, while her early speed and outside draw should ensure she doesn’t run into trouble with dirt kickback.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 2,4 with 2,4 with 5,6,7,8 with ALL ($32)
• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 2,4 with 8 with 2,4 with ALL ($8)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,4 with 3 with 2,4 with 5,6,7,8 with ALL ($32)
• $1 Super High 5: 2,4 with 3 with 8 with 2,4 with ALL ($8)
  Total: $80

Good luck!