Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Woodbine Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Oct. 9 at Keeneland and Belmont Park, along with horses to use in five-figure Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers at Woodbine.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 4x Rewards Points at Belmont Park: Opt in and receive 4x rewards points on all wagers at Belmont Park each racing Friday in October.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in October.
• $10 Bet Back at Woodbine Thoroughbred: Opt in and receive a Bonus Bet up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second or third in select races at Woodbine each racing Friday and Saturday in October. Bonus bets redeemable only at Woodbine and Woodbine Mohawk.
• $3,000 $3 Turf Pick 3 Hit It & Split It at Keeneland: Opt in and hit the $3 Turf Pick 3 at Keeneland for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool each racing Friday in October.
• $50 Late Pick 4 Insurance for Australian Racing: Opt in to receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 4 wagers at select Australian racetracks if you have three out of four winning legs.
• 4% Cash Back on Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge: Opt in and receive 4% cash back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) entry purchased through TwinSpires when you have previously competed in any BCBC qualifier, hosted by TwinSpires or any other operator.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $80 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 10/10 Keeneland CBC Bonus Feeder
• $50 Belmont Park Challenge
• $200 Belmont Park Feeder to 10/17 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $700 Keeneland KFC Qualifier
• $150 Keeneland Challenge
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Keeneland Feeder to 10/11 Keeneland CBC Qualifier
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 10/16 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 3: Allowance (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:04 p.m. ET)

#2 Early Autumn (6-1) earned a field-best 85 Brisnet Speed rating when rallying to win her debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on turf at Saratoga. She subsequently stepped up in class and distance to finish seventh in the one-mile Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies S. over the unique European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs.

Returning to a regular flat oval at Keeneland may help Early Autumn bounce back to the winner’s circle under hot jockey John Velazquez, a 32% winner to start the Keeneland meet.

Let’s try a win bet on Early Autumn.

Selections

• #2 Early Autumn (6-1)
• #8 Smoke (5-2)
• #1 Silver Road (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Early Autumn

Belmont Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:49 p.m. ET)

#4 Queen Paola (7-2) debuted in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on turf at Saratoga. She finished fourth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by next-out Miss Grillo (G2) winner Domestic Agenda.

On Friday, Queen Paola will wear blinkers for the first time, which is a 21% winning move for trainer Miguel Clement. Chances are, she won’t encounter a rival as tough as Domestic Agenda, so let’s bet Queen Paola to win and key her over #7 Doves and Hawks (2-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Queen Paola (7-2)
• #7 Doves and Hawks (2-1)
• #2 Princess Amari (12-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Queen Paola
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $30

Keeneland: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#11 Cartography (12-1) is an interesting longshot after finishing fourth in his first two starts against maiden special weight company on dirt. His latest effort, which came in a 12-horse field, saw him finish behind next-out Breeders’ Futurity (G1) runner-up Coach Pope.

Cartography’s pedigree offers potential for success on turf, and Friday’s contest marks his second try running long, which is a 28% winning move for trainer Eoin Harty. At 12-1, Cartography is worthy of a win bet, and we’ll even play a small exacta using fellow longshot #6 Ferrous (12-1) for second place.

Selections

• #11 Cartography (12-1)
• #6 Ferrous (12-1)
• #1 Seminal (3-1)

Wagers

• $17 to win on #11 Cartography
• $3 Exacta: 11 with 6
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Woodbine: Race 2: $35,775 Pick 5 carryover (1:37 p.m. ET)
Woodbine: Race 3: $35,277 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:11 p.m. ET)

Two five-figure carryovers are well worth pursuing on Friday at Woodbine.

The 20-cent Pick 5 features a $35,775 USD ($51,158 CAD) prize pool. Meanwhile, the 20-cent Power Pick 6 boasts a $35,277 USD ($50,447 CAD) carryover slated for mandatory payout.

The Pick 5 gets underway in Race 2, a $40,000 maiden optional claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on turf. #3 Katherine’s Club (8-5) towers over the field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, but for a couple of reasons, she looks like a risky single.

For one, Katherine’s Club has competed almost exclusively on Tapeta, and she earned one of her lowest Brisnet Speed ratings (a 70) in her lone try on turf. For another, her 9-0-6-2 career record suggests she has a tendency to settle for minor awards. Note, all eight of her top-three finishes have come at this class level.

Katherine’s Club is still a must-use filly in the Pick 5, but we recommend backing her up with second-time starters #4 Perfect Speed (2-1) and #6 Double Or Nothing (10-1). The latter is dropping in class out of a maiden special weight in which she earned a respectable 69 Brisnet Speed rating.

Bettors seeking a single, whether for the Pick 5, the Pick 6, or both, can instead consider #7 Silverstein (8-5) in Race 6, a $25,000 maiden optional claimer taking place over one mile on turf.

Silverstein is dropping down in class and distance after finishing sixth in a 1 1/4-mile maiden special weight. He fared better over shorter distances in his first two starts, finishing second in a 7 1/2-furlong $50,000 maiden optional claimer and second in a one-mile maiden special weight.

Those runner-up efforts yielded sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 77 and 76. Those numbers stack up well against the other entrants in Race 7. Only #2 Tranquillo (3-1) has earned a rating higher than 77, and that was on Tapeta.

Silverstein appears well-spotted to break his maiden for hot trainer Josie Carroll, a 21% winner at Woodbine this meet.

Good luck!