How to bet the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket

While everyone in the United States is focused on Churchill Downs, classic racing is happening in England at Newmarket.

My colleague Vance Hanson has already looked at the 2000 Guineas on Saturday, but the 1000 Guineas on Sunday is an equally intriguing betting race.

Race 4, 10:35 a.m. ET: 1,000 Guineas (G1), one mile, 3yo fillies, $714,000

• $10 win/$30 show: #16 True Love ($40)
• $1 Trifecta: 13,16 with 8,13,16 with 1,2,8,9,13,16,19 ($20)

The filly who was all the rage over winter was #9 Precise. She won her final four as a juvenile, including an outstanding victory in the Fillies’ Mile (G1) at this track Oct. 10. However, she missed a couple of weeks of work this spring due to a temperature.

Her trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has won this race seven times, but setbacks are never a good thing, and he has run horses in this race that have proved to have needed the run, such as Lake Victoria – sixth last year before winning the Irish 1,000 Guineas at her next start.

As usual, O’Brien has another strong contender in the form of #16 True Love, last year’s Cheveley Park (G1) winner at six furlongs prior to a midfield finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). She stepped up to seven furlongs in good style in the Priory Belle (G3) last month; there is a question mark over her ability to stay a mile well, especially at Newmarket.

The best-performed English filly is #19 Venetian Sun; conqueror of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Gstaad in the Prix Morny (G1) over six furlongs in France before coming unstuck when third behind Precise in the Moyglare Stud (G1) over seven furlongs last season. Her pedigree suggests doubt about her ability to get a mile.

Other English fillies well in the local market are Rockfel (G2) runner-up #13 The Prettiest Star, the Charlie Appleby-trained maiden winner #1 Abashiri, Fillies’ Mile third-place finisher #5 Evolutionist, Fred Darling (G2) runner-up #15 Touleen, and the first and fourth from the Nell Gwyn (G3), #2 Azleet and #6 Inis Mor.

It’s also worth considering the French filly #8 My Highness. A Group 2 winner last season, she was surprisingly beaten on resuming last month, but her trainer, Andre Fabre, is a classy and canny operator who may have left some improvement in her.

I’m going to go with O’Brien’s supposed second-string True Love. Despite his record in this race, O’Brien has also had well-fancied runners fail at this meeting when their preparations have been interrupted, which makes me worried about Precise. True Love, however, is in solid form, and I’m tipping she’ll stay a mile. My Highness and The Prettiest Star strike me as the best of the others in what looks like an open race.