Los Alamitos: Analyzing the $44,572 Pick 6 carryover

The Sunday card at Los Alamitos boasts a non-jackpot carryover worth $44,572 in the $2 Pick 6.

The six-race sequence gets underway in Race 4 (post time 5 p.m. ET). Planning to play along, but not sure where to begin? We’ve identified a trustworthy single and a vulnerable favorite to help get you started:

Best single: Race 5 #7 Gracies Gem (2-1)

Gracies Gem looms as a formidable favorite in this $20,000 maiden claimer for California-bred two-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. She debuted in a $50,000 maiden claimer for California-breds at Del Mar, and despite breaking slowly in the 5 1/2-furlong dash, she closed ground to finish fifth in an 11-horse field.

That effort yielded a 70 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any filly entered in Race 5. Trainer George Papaprodromou wins at a powerful 41% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so descending into a $20,000 maiden claimer should send Gracies Gem to the winner’s circle.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 8, #2 Liberation (4-5)

The feature event on Sunday is Race 8, the $100,000 Soviet Problem S. for California-bred juvenile fillies racing one mile on dirt. Liberation is a heavy morning-line favorite, but is she unbeatable? Not necessarily. She’s 0-for-3 in stakes races and exits a third-place finish in the seven-furlong Golden State Juvenile Fillies S. at Del Mar. Her racing record and pedigree both suggest distances shorter than one mile might be her strong suit.

Liberation might still prevail in the Soviet Problem since she’s the only stakes-experienced filly in the field, and three of her five rivals are either maidens or former claimers. But we can’t recommend singling Liberation at a short price.

#6 Eighties (7-2) is the filly we recommend using as backup. The daughter of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner I’ll Have Another disappointed in her first two starts on dirt, but those were five-furlong sprints. She’s improved sharply since stretching out over one mile on turf, most recently wiring a maiden special weight for California-breds at Santa Anita by four lengths.

Eighties has the pedigree to shine on dirt, and drawing the outside post in a six-horse field should help her stay out of kickback and run her best race. She has a good chance to upset Liberation.

Good luck!