Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 10-1 shot for Mountaineer carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, June 23 at Assiniboia Downs, along with a 10-1 shot to play in Mountaineer’s $1,845 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday in June.
• 8x Points at Presque Isle Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Presque Isle Downs each Monday and Tuesday in June.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• Assiniboia Downs Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win bet if your horses run second or third in select races at Assiniboia Downs on Monday.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $30 Parx Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 6/27 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $50 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 7/5 Indiana Derby KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Assiniboia Downs: Race 1: $10,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 8:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Mystery Dance (5-2) finished far behind #1 Sneaky Situation (4-5) in a five-furlong dash over this track and class level on May 27. But that was Mystery Dance’s first start of the season, and she was never involved in a decidedly subpar performance.

Mystery Dance bounced back strongly on June 11, closing from midfield to finish second by a head in a six-furlong $10,000 claimer at Assiniboia Downs. Sticking to the same conditions for her third run of the season gives Mystery Dance a chance to turn the tables on Sneaky Situation.

We’ll bet an exacta accordingly, then single Mystery Dance to start a Pick 3.

Selections

• #3 Mystery Dance (5-2)
• #1 Sneaky Situation (4-5)
• #5 I Am Mila (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 1
• $10 Pick 3: 3 with 4 with 4
  Total: $25

Assiniboia Downs: Race 2: $7,500 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 9:00 p.m. ET)

#4 Market King (1-2) has posted Brisnet Speed ratings of 75, 78, 83, 84, and 74 in his last five starts, including a couple of wins in $7,500 claimers at Assiniboia Downs. Those numbers give him an edge against Monday’s field, which is comprised mostly of horses stepping up in class and runners who have recently lost $7,500 claimers.

We’ll single Market King in our Pick 3 bet and use him to start a daily double as well.

Selections

• #4 Market King (1-2)
• #2 Meko Makee (7-1)
• #1 Bossy Holiday (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 4 with 4

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: $17,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Lansdowne (2-1) has posted improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 83, 88, and 90 in his last three starts. His most recent effort—his first start for trainer Jared Brown—yielded a runner-up finish in a six-furlong $17,500 allowance optional claimer at Assiniboia Downs.

None of Lansdowne’s Monday rivals have recently posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 86, so Lansdowne looms as the horse to beat, especially since Brown wins at a 26% rate with horses running for the second time under his care.

We’ll single Lansdowne to conclude our double and Pick 3 wagers, then add in a small exacta using #1 Northvale Road (3-1) for second place.

Selections

• #4 Lansdowne (2-1)
• #1 Northvale Road (3-1)
• #5 Exacting (8-5)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 4 with 1

Carryover Watch

Mountaineer: Race 8: $1,845 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

The final race on Sunday night at Mountaineer was won by a 3-5 favorite. You might be surprised to hear that outcome triggered a $1,845 Super High 5 carryover into the final race on Monday’s card, but that’s what happens when a 99-1 longshot finishes second, messing up the best-laid plans of Super High 5 bettors.

Perhaps bettors will have a better time solving Monday’s Super High 5. It’s available to play in Race 8, a $4,000 claimer for horses who haven’t won a race in the last year. The six-furlong dash has drawn 14 entries (including four also-eligibles), so there are plenty of potential outcomes to sort through.

The morning-line favorite is #8 Fast Breakin Cash (5-2), who is dropping in class after finishing third in a $20,000 starter optional claimer and fourth in a $16,000 claimer last year. But those were his only two runs of the season, and the Brisnet Speed ratings he posted (65 and 73) were much lower than the many numbers in the 80-100 range he posted during 2023.

Perhaps Fast Breakin Cash will bounce back in his first start off a nine-month break, but he’s nine years old now, and it’s possible his fastest efforts are behind him. We view Fast Breakin Cash as a vulnerable favorite.

So who can spring the upset? We suggest betting #9 Order Ofthe Kettle (10-1) on top of your Super High 5 tickets. His recent form has been muddied by a couple of poor showings in 1 1/16-mile routes over the bullring oval at Charles Town, but his form sprinting is considerably better. Three starts back, he launched a big late rally to finish second by three-quarters of a length in a seven-furlong $5,000 claimer at Charles Town.

Order Ofthe Kettle has done even better competing over full-sized tracks similar to Mountaineer. During the winter at Laurel Park, Order Ofthe Kettle finished second by a neck in a $12,500 claimer sprinting six furlongs, earning a strong 77 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (75) for Monday’s conditions at Mountaineer.

Cutting back to six furlongs and returning to a full-sized racetrack should help Order Ofthe Kettle deliver a peak performance. In addition to playing him in the Super High 5, we recommend betting this five-year-old gelding to win:

• $25 to win on #9 Order Ofthe Kettle

Good luck!