Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 12-1 second-time starter

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 11 at Ellis Park, including a second-time starter at 12-1 odds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Ellis Park Late Pick 5 Protection: Receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 5 wagers each Monday at Ellis Park if you have four out of five winning legs.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $160 Ellis Park Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga/King's Plate KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/23 Travers MMBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 3: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:48 p.m. ET)

#4 Carol’s Melody (8-1) is a first-time starter from the barn of John Ennis, who wins at a 15% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers—far exceeding his 4% win rate with all first-time starters.

A daughter of Shancelot (who is siring a sharp 19% from first-time starters), Carol’s Melody has put together a lengthy work tab and appears capable of outrunning her 8-1 morning-line odds. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Carol’s Melody (8-1)
• #8 Blazing Freedom (6-1)
• #7 Smoochie Boo (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Carol’s Melody

Ellis Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:16 p.m. ET)

#6 La Norme de Jour (5-1) showed promise when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park last month. He closed from midfield to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths, earning an 84 Brisnet Speed rating three points higher than the par winning number for Monday’s conditions.

Since 2021, trainer Kenny McPeek has gone 5-for-16 (31%) saddling experienced juveniles in dirt sprints at Ellis Park, so La Norme de Jour is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also add an exacta using #11 Direct Strike (4-1) for second place.

Selections

• #6 La Norme de Jour (5-1)
• #11 Direct Strike (4-1)
• #2 Marauder (10-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 La Norme de Jour
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 11
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:44 p.m. ET)

#5 Starbrite Starlite (12-1) failed to factor when debuting in a five-furlong maiden special weight on dirt at Churchill Downs, finishing ninth. But there are reasons to believe she can improve on Monday.

For starters, trainer Philip Sims wins at a 23% rate with second-time starters. For another, Sims strikes at a 21% rate with horses trying turf for the first time.

These stats suggest Starbrite Starlite’s 12-1 morning-line odds are a little high, so let’s try a win bet on the chestnut filly.

Selections

• #5 Starbrite Starlite (12-1)
• #2 Windy Houston (5-1)
• #8 Vanish (6-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #5 Starbrite Starlite

Good luck!