Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $4,300 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, June 29 at Finger Lakes and Presque Isle Downs, including a horse to single in Presque Isle’s $4,300 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Parx Challenge
• $80 Parx Feeder to 7/10 Saratoga KDBC/NHC Bonus Feeder
• $98 Presque Isle Downs Feeder to 7/3 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $60 Mountaineer Bet and Set Feeder to 7/5 Saratoga NHC Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 7: Allowance (one mile on dirt, 3:49 p.m. ET)

#2 Free Dance (5-2) is 2-for-2 at Finger Lakes and 1-for-14 at all other tracks. At Finger Lakes, he’s won a pair of six-furlong allowances in decisive fashion, including one on June 3 in which he romped by 7 3/4 lengths.

Free Dance’s pedigree suggests he can stretch out over one mile, and it’s encouraging to note he’s conditioned by red-hot trainer Chris Englehart, a 36% winner at Finger Lakes this meet.

#7 Go Yoshida (2-1), who likewise boasts an unblemished 2-for-2 record at Finger Lakes, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Free Dance (5-2)
• #7 Go Yoshida (2-1)
• #6 Janssen (6-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #2 Free Dance
• $8 Exacta: 2 with 7
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 3:57 p.m. ET)

#5 Del Rayo (2-1) has been competing respectably on dirt and turf as of late, cracking the trifecta in six of his last seven starts. But he also boasts a 5-2-2-0 record on Tapeta, highlighted by wins in $15,000 and $7,500 claimers at Turfway Park.

Del Rayo earned his career-best Brisnet Speed rating on Tapeta, so perhaps returning to Tapeta for a $5,000 claimer will allow Del Rayo to spring a mild upset over #6 Driftwood (9-5). Let’s place a win bet and an exacta accordingly.

Selections

• #5 Del Rayo (2-1)
• #6 Driftwood (9-5)
• #1 R Admiral (7-2)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #5 Del Rayo
• $6 Exacta: 5 with 6
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 4:24 p.m. ET)

#5 Squeeze Play (5-2) has a chance to win on debut for trainer Miguel Clement, who strikes at a lofty 29% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther.

Squeeze Play has put together a lengthy work tab highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :48 over the Belmont Park training track. He’s slated to be ridden by hot jockey Antonio Gallardo (a 26% winner at Presque Isle this meet), so all signs suggest Squeeze Play is ready for a competitive debut.

Let’s place a win bet on Squeeze Play.

Selections

• #5 Squeeze Play (5-2)
• #4 Whine Country (2-1)
• #2 Peak Performer (8-5)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #5 Squeeze Play

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $4,300 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

Presque Isle Downs is celebrating the new week with a $4,300 carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

The five races have drawn a total of 37 horses (averaging 7.4 per race) before scratches. A couple of the races drew only six horses, and all told there are 20,160 possible Pick 5 outcomes to analyze.

We can reduce that number down to 3,360 just by singling #2 Via Della Spiga (5-2) in Race 4, the opening leg of the Late Pick 5.

Best single: Race 4: #2 Via Della Spiga (5-2)

Race 4 is a $12,500 claimer taking place over one mile on Tapeta. It contains half a dozen older horses who haven’t won three races, and Via Della Spiga is a logical favorite while dropping in class.

Via Della Spiga has spent much of his career competing on dirt and turf, but his three efforts over the Presque Isle Downs Tapeta track have been solid. Last October, he wired a one-mile and 70-yard $12,500 claimer for non-winners of two races, dominating by 6 3/4 lengths over a next-out winner.

More recently, Via Della Spiga has finished second and fifth in a pair of $25,000 claimers running long at Presque Isle. In his runner-up finish, he defeated #1 Rachman (7-2), #3 Makoa (3-1), and #5 Keen Surge (8-1), three of the five rivals he’s facing on Monday.

The other two entrants, #4 Halon (9-2) and #6 My Pal Max (8-1), seem unlikely to surprise against Via Della Spiga. Halon is stepping up in class off a third-place finish in a $6,250 claimer at Presque Isle. My Pal Max recently wired a $6,250 claimer over this track by 4 1/2 lengths, but two starts back—in a $12,500 claimer—he finished sixth.

Compelling trainer stats cement Via Della Spiga as the horse to beat. He’s conditioned by Adam Rice, who wins at a 38% rate in claiming races, and at a 75% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

Dropping back down into a $12,500 claimer should send Via Della Spiga to the winner’s circle. We feel confident recommending him as a single to start the Late Pick 5.

Good luck!