Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 8-1 shot at Fair Grounds

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, March 9 at Fair Grounds, Will Rogers Downs, and Turf Paradise, along with analysis of Pick 5 and Super High 5 carryovers at Sunland Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Receive 5x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing Monday in March.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $160 Fair Grounds Feeder to 3/14 Virginia Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#6 El Star (8-1) tired after setting and pressing the pace in her last two starts. But one was the Louisiana Futurity and the other was a $20,000 claimer.

El Star should be able to carry her speed farther while dropping into a $5,000 claimer. Take note, her career-best 67 Brisnet Speed rating is only one point lower than the par winning number (68) for Monday’s conditions.

Let’s place a win bet on El Star, then play a saver exacta using her underneath logical favorite #1 Wickedly Royal (8-5).

Selections

• #6 El Star (8-1)
• #1 Wickedly Royal (8-5)
• #4 Clearly Bella (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #6 El Star
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 6
  Total: $20

Will Rogers Downs: Race 7: Blue Ribbon S. (six furlongs on dirt, 5:02 p.m. ET)

#1 Momacya (4-1) hasn’t missed the trifecta in six sprint starts. Last time out, she finished second in a non-state-restricted allowance dashing six furlongs at Will Rogers Downs, earning a 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

Facing fellow Oklahoma-breds in the Blue Ribbon should suit Momacya just fine. None of her rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 76, and the rail post has produced 29% winner in six-furlong sprints at Will Rogers Downs this meet, so Momacya is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Momacya (4-1)
• #6 Outtaherway (3-1)
• #2 Samantha Code (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Momacya

Turf Paradise: Race 3: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on dirt, 5:11 p.m. ET)

#4 Cornishman (2-1) has competed in seven straight stakes, most notably winning the Cornhusker H. (G3) at Prairie Meadows. Along the way, he’s posted five Brisnet Speed ratings in the 91-99 range.

Those numbers tower over the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (85) for Monday’s conditions. Cornishman appears to have found the perfect spot to secure another victory, so let’s bet him to win and key him over #3 Spenard (4-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #4 Cornishman (2-1)
• #3 Spenard (4-1)
• #2 Lonesome boy (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Cornishman
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park: Race 6: $1,377 Pick 5 carryover (4:36 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Pick 5 at Sunland Park has tossed up a modest, but nevertheless value-adding $1,377 carryover for Monday’s card.

If you’re looking for a trustworthy single to build tickets around, we’ll steer you toward #7 Nogal (3-1) in Race 6, a $12,500 maiden claimer for New Mexico-bred three-year-olds dashing 4 1/2 furlongs on dirt.

Pacesetters have won 70% of 4 1/2-furlong dirt dashes at Sunland since Jan. 4, which bodes well for Nogal. He regularly shows early speed, even in fast-paced races. Two starts back, in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for New Mexico-breds at Zia Park, he dueled through an opening quarter-mile in :21.87 before fighting on to finish second, beaten only a head.

Dropping in class for a $12,500 maiden claimer should make Nogal tough to beat. He owns the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field, and trainer Greg Green wins at a strong 22% rate with horses tackling the maiden claiming ranks for the first time. A typical performance should send Nogal to the winner’s circle.

Sunland Park: Race 10: $446 Super High 5 carryover (6:25 p.m. ET)

If you prefer vertical exotic wagers to horizontal ones, you’ll be glad to know Sunday’s 50-cent Super High 5 at Sunland features a $446 carryover.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 10, a maiden special weight for New Mexico-bred three-year-old fillies dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. #10 Gypsy Wildcat (7-2) is the slim morning-line favorite after finishing second three times over this distance and class level, but her tendency to settle for minor awards is a bit concerning.

As a result, a trio of first-time starters offer appeal. #1 Bye Bye Vicki (8-1) and #8 Equity Search (6-1) hail from the barn of Todd Fincher, a 24% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Bye Bye Vicki is slated to be ridden by Christian Ramos, who has gone 3-for-3 teaming up with Fincher over the last two months, so there’s a lot to like about her chances.

#3 Songcat (5-1) warrants respect too. She enters off an encouraging series of workouts for trainer Joel Marr, who has gone 9-for-31 (29%) saddling first-time starters at Sunland since 2021.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• 50-cent Super High 5: 1,3,8 with 10 with 1,3,8,9 with 1,3,8,9 with 1,3,6,7,8,9 ($27)
• 50-cent Super High 5: 1,3,8 with 1,3,8 with 10 with 1,3,8,9 with 1,3,6,7,8,9 ($18)
  Total: $45

Good luck!