Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Assiniboia’s $465,217 Pick 5 mandatory payout

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 4 at Ellis Park and Finger Lakes, along with tickets for the mandatory-payout $465,217 Pick 5 carryover at Assiniboia Downs and the $2,966 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Assiniboia Downs $1,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It and Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Assiniboia Downs on Monday, Aug. 4, for a chance to split a $1,500 prize pool.
• Ellis Park Late Pick 5 Protection: Receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 5 wagers each Monday at Ellis Park if you have four out of five winning legs.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $200 Ellis Park Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga/Arlington Million MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga/King's Plate KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#5 Props (5-1) wasn’t disgraced when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint over this class level at Ellis Park last month. After dropping a dozen lengths off the early pace, he closed ground late to finish third by 4 3/4 lengths.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux rarely saddles winning first-time starters, so the fact Props ran respectably on debut is a sign of talent. He’s eligible to move forward in his second start, and switching to dirt also offers potential for improvement since his sire (Street Sense) and dam (Gloryzapper) both won graded stakes on dirt.

Let’s bet Props to win and key him over #2 Honey Dutch (2-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Props (5-1)
• #2 Honey Dutch (2-1)
• #7 Sparkling Speed (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Props
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $25

Finger Lakes: Race 1: $8,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#3 Olazabal (6-5) has won four of his last five starts at Finger Lakes. Two recent sprints over this class level have resulted in blowout gate-to-wire victories by six lengths and 5 1/4 lengths.

With a trio of 90+ Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt this year, Olazabal is easily the fastest horse in Monday’s field as far as recent numbers are concerned. Let’s bet him over #6 Sutton Breeze (7-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #3 Olazabal (6-5)
• #6 Sutton Breeze (7-2)
• #4 Nutsie (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 3 with 6

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#1 Strong (3-1) has shown talent in a pair of five-furlong turf maiden special weights at Churchill Downs. He finished fourth in his debut, then improved to take runner-up honors in his second start.

As a son of Raging Bull, who won three Grade 1 turf prizes over distances from one mile to 1 1/8 miles, Strong has the potential to improve while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles. Let’s bet him to win and play him over #7 So Special (4-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Strong (3-1)
• #7 So Special (4-1)
• #9 Da Prince Is Right (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Strong
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park, Race 1: $2,966 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

The opening race on Monday at Ellis Park features a $2,966 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

We’ve already identified #5 Props (5-1) and #2 Honey Dutch (2-1) as compelling contenders for reasons outlined above. We’ll play small Super High 5 tickets keying Props on top and counting on Honey Dutch to finish either second or third:

• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 2 with 3,7 with 3,6,7 with ALL ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 5 with 3,7 with 2 with 3,6,7 with ALL ($12)
  Total: $24

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: $465,217 Pick 5 mandatory payout (9:25 p.m. ET)

An exciting Monday card is on the agenda at Assiniboia Downs. The sporting action is led by three stakes, including the $125,000 Manitoba Derby, while bettors can anticipate the mandatory payout of a massive $465,217 Pick 5 carryover.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence for the 20-cent wager, then assemble a ticket:

Race 3: $3,000 Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

There aren’t any standouts in this competitive 10-horse field. You can make a case for pretty much any entrant to win. We’ll spread deep with #3 Discreet Invasion (3-1), #4 I Will Stand (9-5), #5 Sol Del Sur (15-1), #6 Double Time (25-1), #7 Prairie Drifter (10-1), #8 Magnolia Speed (8-1) and #9 Ride Em (4-1).

Race 4: Escape Clause S. (one mile on dirt)

#1 Burrow Down (7-5) boasts a 10-for-13 record at Assiniboia Downs. All 10 of her wins have come in stakes. She posted a decisive 2 1/4-length score in the Canada S. over this track last month and is hands-down the mare to beat in the Escape Clause. We’ll make her a short-priced single.

Race 5: Harvey Warner Manitoba Mile S. (one mile on dirt)

#3 Judo (5-2) has won five starts in a row, including two stakes at Assiniboia. But a few others appear fast enough to challenge here, such as #6 Pinky Ring Bling (8-1), #7 Indio Mara (6-1), #9 Malibu S S (5-1), and #11 Lansdowne (10-1).

Race 6: Manitoba Derby (1 1/8 miles on dirt)

Four-time stakes winner #7 Take Charge Tom (1-2) made his Assiniboia Downs debut a winning one in the one-mile Derby Trial last month, prevailing by three-quarters of a length. He’s already won over 1 1/8 miles in the Mine That Bird Derby and should appreciate stretching back out in distance, though #8 Just Trust Me (5-1)—the pacesetting runner-up in the Derby Trial—is worth using as backup.

Race 7: $12,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

#2 Sumitup (6-5) has won two of her last three starts over this track and class level, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings. But she misfired last time out, finishing behind #5 Distinctive Deb (4-1), who has defeated Sumitup on several occasions this year. We’ll use both these mares and add in Texas shipper #8 Bringonthebubbly (10-1) for good measure.

• 20-cent Pick 5: 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 1 with 3,6,7,9,11 with 7,8 with 2,5,8 ($42)

Good luck!