Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Bright Angel can shine at Finger Lakes

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 28 at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including analysis of the $4,744 Pick 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
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Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $160 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 8/2 Whitney KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $160 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/2 Whitney KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 1:29 p.m. ET)

#1 Bright Angel (4-1) has spent much of her career competing on turf, but her two dirt tries have been promising. At Monmouth Park last summer, she ran fourth in a one-mile maiden special weight. And at Finger Lakes last month, she carved out the pace in a one-mile and 70-yard maiden special weight before staying on to finish second.

Perhaps returning to the Finger Lakes dirt can send Bright Angel to the winner’s circle. At 4-1, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #1 Bright Angel (4-1)
• #3 Wisecracker (6-1)
• #4 Fines Creek (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Bright Angel

Finger Lakes: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:27 p.m. ET)

#4 Mama’s Middie (5-2) ran an okay fifth when facing New York-breds in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga earlier this month. She fared better two starts back in a maiden special weight at Finger Lakes, closing from midfield to finish second by half a length.

Mama’s Middie figures to rebound while returning to Finger Lakes for her third start of the season. Take note, trainer Marisa Monserrate wins at a 44% rate with horses running back for the third time following a layoff.

Let’s bet Mama’s Middie to win.

Selections

• #4 Mama’s Middie (5-2)
• #2B Billy At the Gate (2-1)
• #6 Not My Type (6-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Mama’s Middie

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Trainer Larry Rivelli wins at a lofty 33% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, so let’s back Rivelli’s unraced juvenile filly #6 Mayzforcebewithu (7-5).

Mayzforcebewithu showed serious speed when breezing a bullet half-mile from the Hawthorne starting gate in :46 1/5 earlier this month. Let’s key her over #5 Dreaming Bonita (5-2) and #4 Not Bad Right (12-1) in exacta tickets.

Selections

• #6 Mayzforcebewithu (7-5)
• #5 Dreaming Bonita (5-2)
• #4 Not Bad Right (12-1)

Wagers

• $22 Exacta: 6 with 5
• $8 Exacta: 6 with 4
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $4,744 Pick 5 carryover (3:43 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent Late Pick 5 on Monday at Horseshoe Indianapolis boasts a $4,744 carryover. Winning a share won’t be easy.

Two of the five legs are maiden special weights for two-year-olds. The fields look highly competitive on paper, and spreading deep may be necessary to ensure survival in the Pick 5.

The first juvenile contest is Race 4, a five-furlong turf sprint for fillies. #2 Shez Twisted (9-5) looks like the best of the experienced runners after finishing second in three straight maiden special weights on dirt and Tapeta, but she’s never raced on turf, so the surface switch is a question mark.

#1 Juno Palace (20-1) is an intriguing longshot. She failed to fire in her debut dashing 4 1/2 furlongs over the Keeneland dirt, finishing 10th. But that was a deep maiden special weight from which the top three finishers all returned to win.  The competition should be easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Juno Palace’s pedigree offers potential for success on turf, so there’s a path for this double-digit longshot to visit the winner’s circle.

First-time starters #3 Great Kerry Lee (9-2) and #5 A Stern Lady (8-1) shouldn’t be underestimated either. Both are bred for turf and have posted reasonably quick half-mile workouts in preparation for their debuts.

The second two-year-old contest in the Pick 6 is Race 7, a maiden special weight for fillies sprinting five furlongs on dirt. Among the experienced runners in this large field, we prefer #10 Grant’s Gretchen (6-1), who is shipping in from Kentucky. She misfired when facing males on turf last time out, finishing ninth. But in her debut against fillies on dirt at Keeneland, she finished a respectable fourth, beaten only a head for third place.

A few first-time starters are also worth considering. #1 Woodstock (8-1) is a daughter of talented sprinter Yaupon (who is siring a hefty 36% winners from first-time starters), and she’s trained by Mike Maker, a 33% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. #5 Divine Celina (6-1) hails from the barn of Steve Asmussen, who has gone 5-for-23 (22%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at this track since 2021. And #11 Justifiable Steel (8-1), by Triple Crown winner Justify, showed serious speed when breezing half a mile from the Horseshoe Indianapolis starting gate in :46 4/5 last month.

Good luck!