Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Ellis Park and Gulfstream Park carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 17 at Ellis Park and Presque Isle Downs, along with horses to play in Ellis’ $2,714 Super High 5 carryover and Gulfstream’s $25,553 Pick 6 mandatory payout.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in August.
• 15% Profit Boost Tokens at Gulfstream Park: Opt in to receive five 15% Profit Boost Tokens (maximum boost of $25 per token) for win wagers at Gulfstream Park on Monday, Aug. 17.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Ellis Park Challenge
• $200 Ellis Park Feeder to 8/22 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Qualifier
• $90 Parx Feeder to 8/21 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $75 Presque Isle Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 8/23 Saratoga SSBC Qualifier
• $96 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/27 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 2: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:19 p.m. ET)

#3 Southern Way (4-1) showed some ability when debuting at this track and class level on July 18. Despite breaking slowly and dropping more than a dozen lengths behind a modest early pace, she closed with interest to finish fourth, beaten only two lengths.

Trainer Rodolphe Brisset wins at a lofty 23% rate with second-time starters, so Southern Way is eligible to move forward on Monday, especially if she gets off to a better start. Let’s bet her to win and single her to start a small double wager.

Selections

• #3 Southern Way (4-1)
• #4 Valentine Eve (2-1)
• #8 Slighted (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Southern Way
• $5 Double: 3 with 7
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 3: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (one mile on turf, 1:48 p.m. ET)

#7 Donie Maronie (3-1) debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at this course and class level on July 19. She was never more than 2 1/2 lengths off a solid pace and finished third with a respectable 76 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Monday’s conditions is only 73. Donie Maronie is already fast enough to win a race like this, and if she improves while stretching out in distance for her second start, she can graduate at fair odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #7 Donie Maronie (3-1)
• #8 Doctor Approved (5-1)
• #2 Que Sera (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Donie Maronie

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $25,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 4:51 p.m. ET)

#2 Live Stream (9-5) is dropping in class after cracking the trifecta in five straight starts against tougher competition. Four of them came on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs, including a third-place finish (beaten only two lengths) in the Tom Ridge S.

Live Stream has been sprinting as of late, but he’s bred to relish stretching back out over one mile, especially while dropping in class. Throw in the fact he has the hot jockey/trainer duo of Israel Rodriguez and Juan Arriagada in his corner, and Live Stream is a compelling win choice.

#4 Diver (3-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Live Stream (9-5)
• #4 Diver (3-1)
• #5 Maximum Faith (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 4

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $2,714 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Super High 5 in Sunday’s final race at Ellis Park, triggering a $2,714 carryover into Race 1 on Monday.

Race 1 is a $16,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The one-mile dirt contest has attracted an eight-horse field, and #2 Fitzgerald (6-1) has a shot to win at a bit of a price.

Fitzgerald has been gradually improving for trainer Ron Moquett, and he elevated his game to a new level in a $10,000 claimer at this track and distance last month. After tracking the early pace in third place, he took over before the halfway point and steadily extended his lead to triumph by 10 lengths.

Fitzgerald earned a 77 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against Monday’s field. Although Fitzgerald is stepping up in class, Race 1 doesn’t feature the toughest field on paper, so a similar performance may be sufficient for Fitzgerald to secure first prize once again. Don’t leave him off the top of your Super High 5 tickets.

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: $25,553 Pick 6 mandatory payout (1:54 p.m. ET)

The 20-cent Rainbow Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park has accumulated a $25,553 jackpot carryover, and there’s a mandatory payout of the carryover on Monday, so all bettors who assemble a winning ticket will earn a share of the prize pool.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, we’ll steer you toward #2 Cross Haste (1-1) in Race 6, a $6,250 claimer for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Cross Haste enters in hot form. He’s won three of his last four starts, including back-to-back $6,250 claimers sprinting at Gulfstream Park. On June 13, he led all the way to romp by 6 3/4 lengths with a career-best 95 Brisnet Speed rating. On July 4, he again carved out the pace on his way to victory by 2 1/4 lengths with an 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

Take note, Cross Haste was claimed out of the July 4 race by Victor Barboza Jr., who wins at a powerful 38% rate with new claiming acquisitions. That bodes well for Cross Haste’s chances on Monday.

Cross Haste is facing only five rivals in Race 6, and none have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 83 in their last three starts apiece. Furthermore, three of them have recently lost to Cross Haste.

As a result, Cross Haste is a logical Pick 6 single.

Good luck!