Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Ellis Park’s $3,978 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 14 at Ellis Park and Assiniboia Downs, including analysis of the $3,978 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down: Hit two double wagers at Assiniboia Downs to receive a 25% boost (maximum $25 in total) on all winning double wagers for the day at Assiniboia Downs every racing day in July.
• Ellis Park Monday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Ellis Park each Monday in July for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each promotional day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $500 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Assiniboia Downs Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:19 p.m. ET)

#3 Integrity (5-1) looks ready to win his first start for trainer Brendan Walsh, who has compiled a respectable 6-for-37 (16%) record debuting two-year-olds in dirt sprints at Ellis Park since 2020.

A son of juvenile Grade 1 winner Maxfield (who is siring 22% winners from first-time starters), Integrity enters off a sharp work tab capped off by a swift half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 1/5.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #3 Integrity (5-1)
• #5 Collective Beauty (4-1)
• #8 Glory Me (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Integrity

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Derby Trial S. (one mile on dirt, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#3 Take Charge Tom (2-5) has performed well against stakes competition. He’s won the Lost in the Fog Juvenile S, Riley Allison Derby, and Mine That Bird Derby, in addition to placing third in the Texas Derby and fourth in the Sunland Park Derby. Along the way, he’s posted sharp Brisnet Speed ratings in the 82-96 range.

Take Charge Tom looks like a standout in the Derby Trial field, so let’s take part in the Assiniboia Downs 25% Double Down promotion on TwinSpires.com and single him to start a cold double wager.

We’ll also add a small exacta using Kentucky shipper #4 Acknowledge (10-1) for second place.

Selections

• #3 Take Charge Tom (2-5)
• #4 Acknowledge (10-1)
• #2 Dominant Spirit (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 3 with 5
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 4
  Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 4: $10,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#5 Sporting Star (7-5) was tons the best in her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Arapahoe Park last fall. She dueled for command before drawing off to win a maiden special weight by 12 1/2 lengths.

Trainer Dewey Williams has gone 10-4-3-0 (40%) at Assiniboia Downs this meet and strikes at a 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so we’ll count on Sporting Star to shine in her second start. We’ll single her to conclude our double bet, then bet her over #1 Thatswhathesaid (6-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Sporting Star (7-5)
• #1 Thatswhathesaid (6-1)
• #4 Mystery Dance (2-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1

Carryover Watch

Ellis Park: Race 1: $3,978 Super High 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

No one hit the $1 Super High 5 in the final race at Ellis Park on Sunday, so the new week is kicking off with a $3,978 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in Monday’s opener at Ellis Park.

Race 1 is a $50,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The one-mile dirt contest has drawn eight entries, so there are only 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

We view #7 Bermuda Blitz (7-2) as the most likely winner. The three-year-old gelding has fared okay in a couple of recent sprints at Churchill Downs, finishing fourth in a $50,000 starter allowance and third in a $50,000 claimer. Those efforts earned respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 79.

But Bermuda Blitz has fared better running long. He broke his maiden in a one-mile $80,000 maiden optional claimer against older horses at Oaklawn Park, charging form midfield to dominate by 3 3/4 lengths with an 88 Brisnet Speed rating. Later, he posted an 87 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second in a 1 1/16-mile $200,000 allowance optional claimer.

Those Brisnet Speed ratings stand out against Monday’s field. None of Bermuda Blitz’s rivals have posted a number higher than 86 this year, and five of them haven’t posted a number higher than 84 at any point in time.

Assuming Bermuda Blitz rebounds to the 87-88 range while stretching back out over one mile, he should be tough to beat in his first start since being claimed by hot trainer Armando Hernandez, a 35% winner with new claiming acquisitions. We recommend keying Bermuda Blitz on top in the Super High 5 and betting him to win for good measure:

• $30 to win on #7 Bermuda Blitz

Horses worth using underneath Bermuda Blitz include #4 Iron Sharpens Iron (8-1), who is stretching out off a rallying third-place finish in a 6 1/2-furlong $50,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, and #5 Good Bali (5-1), who is dropping in class off a fifth-place finish in an $80,000 claimer for non-winners of two races.

Good luck!