Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Finger Lakes $19,576 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Oct. 5 at Presque Isle Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis, and Assiniboia Downs, along with a horse to single in the $19,576 Pick 5 carryover at Finger Lakes.

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Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $60 Presque Isle Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 10/8 Keeneland KFC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $140 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 10/9 Keeneland KFC Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $90 Mountaineer Feeder to 10/10 Keeneland CBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Presque Isle Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 4:24 p.m. ET)

The experienced runners in this field don’t look unbeatable, so let’s take a shot backing first-time starter #6 Shadow of the Sun (8-1). She’s put together a lengthy work tab with a few quick breezes (including half a mile in :46 2/5), and she’s trained by Timothy Hamm, who strikes at a solid 17% rate with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level.

We’ll bet Shadow of the Sun to win and key her over #1 Fun Time Lindsay (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Shadow of the Sun (8-1)
• #1 Fun Time Lindsay (7-2)
• #4 Tegridy (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Shadow of the Sun
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 1
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Bit Tipsy (8-1) has competed exclusively against maiden special weight competition in Kentucky. Along the way, she’s posted three Brisnet Speed ratings in the 71-77 range, and all of those numbers are higher than the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (67) for Monday’s conditions at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Bit Tipsy earned her highest rating in her lone start on dirt, so returning to dirt may send her to the winner’s circle for hot trainer Eduardo Caramori, a 22% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet.

At 8-1, a win bet is in order. We’ll also bet an exacta using #2 Sami Michal (4-1) and #11 Mapping (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #4 Bit Tipsy (8-1)
• #2 Sami Michal (4-1)
• #11 Mapping (7-2)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #4 Bit Tipsy
• $3 Exacta: 4 with 2,11 ($6)
  Total: $24

Assiniboia Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#2 Cape Spear (4-5) is the heavy favorite while dropping in class out of three straight stakes, but in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, she isn’t as fast as #1 Onemorsteptoheaven (3-1).

Onemorsteptoheaven debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Assiniboia Downs. She rallied from last place to finish third, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths while earning a 64 Brisnet Speed rating higher than the par winning number (63) for Monday’s conditions.

Let’s bet Onemorsteptoheaven to win and key her over Cape Spear in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Onemorsteptoheaven (3-1)
• #2 Cape Spear (4-5)
• #6 Stringin Me On (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Onemorsteptoheaven
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 4: $19,576 Pick 5 carryover (2:22 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Finger Lakes is highlighted by an enticing $19,576 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5. It’s not every day Thoroughbred bettors can pursue a five-figure, non-jackpot carryover to start the racing week.

Bettors seeking a single to build tickets around are advised to side with #6 Split the Blanket (7-2) in Race 4, the opening leg of the sequence.

Best single: #6 Split the Blanket (7-2)

At first glance, Split the Blanket might seem like a creative choice for a single. She’s the third choice on the morning line and has already finished behind morning-line favorite #7 Cadillac Mary (5-2).

But Race 4 is a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, and the surface—dirt—may determine the outcome.

Split the Blanket has spent her first two starts competing in 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weights at Saratoga. In her debut, she got off to a troubled start, dropped well off the pace, and settled for seventh place, half a length and one placing behind Cadillac Mary.

In Split the Blanket’s second start, she improved, setting the pace before tiring to finish fourth.

As a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Liam’s Map out of a mare by multiple Grade 1 winner Practical Joke, Split the Blanket is bred to handle dirt without issue. The same can’t necessarily be said of Cadillac Mary, whose sire—Golden Pal—was a turf sprinter with two Breeders’ Cup wins to his credit.

The switch from turf to dirt should help Split the Blanket turn the tables on Cadillac Mary. It helps that she has red-hot connections in her corner. Trainer Melanie Giddings has gone 6-for-18 (33%) at Finger Lakes this meet, while Shaun Bridgmohan boasts a 5-for-11 (45%) tally. Teaming up over the last two months, they’ve gone 5-for-13 (31%).

Throw in the fact pacesetters have won 47% of 5 1/2-furlong sprints at Finger Lakes this meet, and Split the Blanket’s credentials are compelling. We believe she has a strong chance to beat Cadillac Mary and also #1 Authentic Gini (3-1), a local runner who finished a distant second in her debut at this track and class level, so Cadillac Mary is a logical choice to single in the opening leg of the Late Pick 5.

Good luck!