Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Gulfstream’s mandatory-payout $19,464 Pick 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Aug. 3 at Finger Lakes and Assiniboia Downs, along with analysis of the mandatory-payout $19,464 Pick 6 carryover at Gulfstream Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $10 Bet Back at Century Mile: Opt in and receive a Bonus Bet up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horses run second or third in all eligible races at Century Mile on Monday, Aug. 3.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $60 Presque Isle Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga NHC Qualifier
• $40 Presque Isle Downs Challenge
• $80 Presque Isle Downs Feeder to 8/7 Saratoga KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $88 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/14 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards on dirt, 1:24 p.m. ET)

#5 Raghba (1-1) has been facing tougher competition at tracks like Saratoga, Keeneland, and Aqueduct. He’s recorded runner-up finishes against maiden special weight competition in four of his last five starts and should be tough to beat while taking his game to Finger Lakes for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.

Let’s single Raghba to start a daily double.

Selections

• #5 Raghba (1-1)
• #2 Sayula (4-1)
• #3 Playingon Broadway (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 5 with 1

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $11,000 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt, 1:53 p.m. ET)

#1 Three Little Birds (2-1) exits five straight starts against tougher competition on the New York Racing Association circuit. He cracked the trifecta in three of them, including when battling to victory in a $30,000 claimer at Aqueduct.

Three Little Birds brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to Finger Lakes and has a strong chance to deliver victory for hot trainer Charlton Baker, a 25% winner at Finger Lakes this meet. Let’s single Three Little Birds to conclude our daily double, then key him over #5 Ava’s Uncle Billy (5-2) and #2 Mr. Sugar Daddy (7-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Three Little Birds (2-1)
• #5 Ava’s Uncle Billy (5-2)
• #2 Mr. Sugar Daddy (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 1 with 2,5 ($30)

Assiniboia Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 9:50 p.m. ET)

#6 He’s My Uncle (5-2) is a relative newcomer to Assiniboia Downs. After recording a quartet of top-three finishes from 10 starts in Florida, he made his Assiniboia debut on July 7, rallying to finish second by one length in a six-furlong maiden special weight.

He’s My Uncle appears well spotted to secure victory in his second local start, so let’s key him over the consistent #4 Judge Oliver (4-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 He’s My Uncle (5-2)
• #4 Judge Oliver (4-1)
• #10 Charlie’s Prize (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 4

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: $19,464 Pick 6 mandatory payout (1:22 p.m. ET)

Another Monday, another mandatory payout of the 20-cent Rainbow Pick 6 carryover at Gulfstream Park.

The Rainbow Pick 6 is normally a jackpot-style wager that pays out the carryover only in the event a unique winning ticket is sold. On mandatory payout days, all bettors who assemble a winning ticket split the prize pool.

The carryover this Monday is $19,464. Gulfstream estimates the final pool will reach $400,000.

Our best recommendation for a single to build tickets around is #4 I’m Sam (8-5) in Race 3, the opening leg of the Rainbow Pick 6.

Best single: Race 3: #4 I’m Sam (8-5)

Only six horses are slated to face the starter in Race 3, a $25,000 starter optional claimer for three-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta. The conditions should be perfect for I’m Sam, who has been competing with aplomb against tougher competition.

I’m Sam has made three starts since transferring to the care of high-percentage trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., a 23% winner this year. Two came in $50,000 starter optional claimers racing one mile over the Gulfstream Park grass; I’m Sam finished second by a neck in one and third by 4 3/4 lengths in the other, earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 75 and 77.

But I’m Sam has run even faster on Tapeta. Two starts back, in a $35,000 starter optional claimer racing one mile and 70 yards, he rallied to finish second by 1 1/2 lengths, earning an 85 Brisnet Speed rating. That matched the number he earned in his final start prior to transferring to Joseph’s care—a 10 1/2-length romp in a $17,500 claimer over one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta.

Returning to Tapeta while dropping in class for a $25,000 starter optional claimer should make I’m Sam tough to beat. It helps that he’s picking up jockey Micah Husbands, a 29% winner teaming up with Joseph over the last two months.

Throw in the fact none of the other Race 3 entrants have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 85 within the last year, and I’m Sam is a compelling single to start the Rainbow Pick 6.

Good luck!