Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Horseshoe Indianapolis Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Oct. 6 at Finger Lakes and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a ticket for the $2,623 Pick 5 carryover at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 10/12 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier
• $200 Mountaineer Feeder to 10/18 Keeneland KDBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

#3 Back to Khali (5-2) is shipping in from the New York Racing Association circuit, where she started three times during the summer. She was beaten by double-digit margins each time, but showed flashes of ability along the way. In a six-furlong maiden special weight for New York-breds at Saratoga, she carved out the pace before tiring to finish fifth.

Pacesetters have won 50% of 5 1/2-furlong sprints at Finger Lakes this meet, so if Back to Khali shakes loose up front, she can lead all the way for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Andre Worrie and Chris Englehart.

Fellow New York Racing Association shipper #6 That’s Amore (4-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Back to Khali (5-2)
• #6 That’s Amore (4-1)
• #4 She’s a Goddess (3-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #3 Back to Khali
• $6 Exacta: 3 with 6
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#1 Prayer Unbridled (5-2) has cracked the trifecta sprinting over this class level, and she exits a solid runner-up finish in a $25,000 maiden claimer dashing 5 1/2 furlongs. On that occasion, she was never more than one length behind at any call.

Prayer Unbridled’s speed should help her secure an uncontested lead while stretching out over one mile. We anticipate she’ll improve as a result, so let’s bet Prayer Unbridled to win and key her over first-time starter #4 Hotline Iris (9-5) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #1 Prayer Unbridled (5-2)
• #4 Hotline Iris (9-5)
• #3 Swiss Meringue (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Prayer Unbridled
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#2 Bricklin (9-2) dueled for the lead in her debut over this distance and class level at Ellis Park before tiring to finish sixth. She figures to find the competition a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, setting the stage for a winning run while adding blinkers.

Two trainer stats cement Bricklin as a formidable win threat: Rodolphe Brisset wins at a lofty 28% rate with second-time starters, and at a 23% rate with horses wearing blinkers for the first time.

At 9-2, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #2 Bricklin (9-2)
• #6 Zun Day (5-2)
• #7 Canterville (3-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #2 Bricklin

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: $2,623 Pick 5 carryover (2:10 p.m. ET)

Horseshoe Indianapolis is kicking off the new week with a non-jackpot $2,623 carryover up for grabs in the 50-cent Early Pick 5.

Let’s analyze the sequence in race-by-race fashion, then assemble a $60 ticket:

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt)

We’ve already outlined #1 Prayer Unbridled (5-2) as our top choice, but we won’t stand alone with her for Pick 5 purposes. We’ll also use #4 Hotline Iris (9-5), a first-time starter who won’t have to be a superstar to beat this largely uninspiring field.

Race 2: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt)

This six-horse field looks highly competitive. We’ll spread deep with #1 Coaster (8-5), #2 Electrifying Lady (5-2), #4 Sweet Scorecard (9-2), and #6 Enchanting (6-1).

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt)

Second-time starter #2 Bricklin (9-2) is our top choice for reasons outlined above, but fellow Kentucky shipper #7 Canterville (3-1) and the first-time starter #6 Zun Day (5-2) mustn’t be overlooked for Pick 5 purposes.

Race 4: Allowance (one mile on turf)

#2 Zach (3-1) and #8 Ready to Seize (7-2) have both run well in allowances over this turf course, so they’re logical contenders. But #1 Forever Greedy (9-2) and #6 Creek Valley (15-1) are eligible to challenge while trying turf for the first time, and #3 Takechargejustice (6-1) is fast enough to factor on his best day.

Race 5: $8,000 Claiming (one mile on dirt)

There’s very little pace in this field on paper, so #2 Fervent Prayer (5-1)—a gate-to-wire maiden special weight winner racing 1 1/16 miles last year—is a threat to lead all the way. He’s dropping in class, stretching out in distance off a sprint, adding blinkers, and picking up apprentice jockey Jose Gutierrez, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance.

We’ll take a bold stand and single Fervent Prayer to conclude the Pick 5.

Pick 5 ticket

• 50-cent Pick 5: 1,4 with 1,2,4,6 with 2,6,7 with 1,2,3,6,8 with 2 ($60)

Good luck!