Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Itsmybirthday returns to action

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, April 6 at Will Rogers Downs and Turf Paradise, including a stakes horses dropping in class.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Will Rogers Downs: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 4:08 p.m. ET)

#1 Surely Swift (7-5) ran out of her skin in her first start at Will Rogers Downs. Favored at odds-on to win a 5 1/2-furlong $15,000 maiden claimer, she led all the way to dominate by 14 1/4 lengths, earning a flashy 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Monday’s conditions is only 69, so if Surely Swift repeats her last effort, she’ll be tough to catch. Let’s bet her on top of an exacta using #6 Annie One Sock (2-1) for second place.

Selections

• #1 Surely Swift (7-5)
• #6 Annie One Sock (2-1)
• #7 Gift of Grace (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 6

Turf Paradise: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 6:12 p.m. ET)

#6 Itsmybirthday (9-5) is unbeaten in three starts against non-stakes competition. He opened his career with back-to-back blowout wins sprinting at Turf Paradise, most notably taking a six-furlong allowance by 4 1/4 lengths over future three-time stakes winner Time to Fly.

Itsmybirthday has been freshened since July, when he ran second in the 1 1/16-mile Iowa Derby. Dropping down in class and distance should send him to the winner’s circle over #5 Kauai Dan (7-2) and #2 Diamond Rim (4-1), so we’ll bet exacta and trifecta tickets accordingly.

Selections

• #6 Itsmybirthday (9-5)
• #5 Kauai Dan (7-2)
• #2 Diamond Rim (4-1)

Wagers

• $12 Exacta: 6 with 2,5 ($24)
• $3 Trifecta: 6 with 2,5 with 2,5 ($6)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 9: $6,250 Starter Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 8:13 p.m. ET)

#5 Little Trouble (3-1) has won four starts in a row while competing on both dirt and turf. Two starts back, he wired a 6 1/2-furlong $5,000 starter allowance by 3 1/4 lengths.

Little Trouble brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings into this $6,250 starter optional claimer and should prove difficult to chase down. #1 Good Focus (4-1) can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Little Trouble (3-1)
• #1 Good Focus (4-1)
• #6 Winning Big (5-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #5 Little Trouble
• $8 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $30

Good luck!