Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Saratoga’s $165,580 Pick 6 carryover, Del Mar stakes

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares Labor Day best bets and quick picks for Monday, Sept. 1, at Saratoga and Del Mar, along with horses to play in Pick 6 carryovers at Saratoga and Colonial Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Mountaineer 25% Exacta Boost: Receive a 25% boost (up to $25 per day) on your winning exacta wagers at Mountaineer on Mondays in September.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $200 Saratoga Feeder to 9/4 Kentucky Downs MMBC Qualifier
• $100 Saratoga Challenge
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 9/13 Woodbine Mile/Churchill Downs KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Saratoga: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 12:05 p.m. ET)

#1 Winning Method (4-1) has put together a solid work tab for trainer Chad Brown, a 19% winner with first-time starters. The chestnut colt is a son of early-maturing Champagne (G1) winner Complexity, whom Brown saddled to win his debut at Saratoga on Labor Day in 2018. Complexity sires a sharp 17% winners from first-time starters.

Under Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat, Winning Method is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Winning Method (4-1)
• #8 Scrutinator (5-1)
• #5 Epic Quest (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Winning Method

Del Mar: Race 8: Tranquility Lake S. (one mile on dirt, 8:05 p.m. ET)

After finishing second in the La Brea (G1), Santa Maria (G2), and Santa Margarita (G2) during a competitive but winless graded stakes campaign, #1 Splendora (8-5) dropped in class for a $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar, which she dominated by 3 1/2 lengths.

Splendora looks like a great fit for this ungraded stakes, so let’s bet her to win and key her over last year’s Zenyatta (G2) and Summertime Oaks (G2) winner #8 Sugar Fish (4-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Splendora (8-5)
• #8 Sugar Fish (4-1)
• #3 Ooty (8-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #1 Splendora
• $15 Exacta: 1 with 8
  Total: $30

Del Mar: Race 10: Generous Portion S. (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:05 p.m. ET)

#3 What’s a Good Name (3-1) broke her maiden by one length over next-out winner #2 Mohaven (5-2), then proceeded to finish second in Del Mar’s Graduation S.

Mohaven is the Generous Portion favorite thanks to her gate-to-wire, 2 1/4-length maiden win at Del Mar, but What’s a Good Name has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale and has a shot to topple her. Let’s bet an exacta accordingly.

Selections

• #3 What’s a Good Name (3-1)
• #2 Mohaven (5-2)
• #4 Jasmina (5-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 2

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 3: $2,454 Pick 6 carryover (1:30 p.m. ET)

Colonial Downs is celebrating Labor Day with a $2,454 carryover in the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6.

With its modest 15% takeout rate and non-jackpot status, the Old Dominion 6 is an enticing wager for bettors to pursue.

Mathematically speaking, Monday’s Pick 6 sequence looks more manageable than many at the Virginia oval. The six races have drawn 52 horses in total (averaging about 8.7 per race), and there are only 384,912 possible outcomes before scratches.

Race 3, the opening leg of the Pick 6, is a $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt. It’s drawn only six entries, making it an ideal spot to seek a single.

#6 Cameo (8-5) is the morning-line favorite, and the three-year-old filly brings an interesting profile to the table. She failed to factor in her first five starts, including two on turf. But when she dropped in class for a six-furlong $12,500 maiden claimer at Colonial Downs last month, she ran out of her skin. Making her first start in three months, Cameo led all the way and widened her advantage at every call to dominate by 11 lengths, earning a career-best 86 Brisnet Speed rating, 14 points higher than her previous best number.

If Cameo repeats that performance, her Monday rivals are almost certainly running for second place. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Monday’s conditions is 77, a number only one of her rivals—#5 Chublin (9-2)—has ever exceeded. Chublin posted an 86 when winning a $32,000 claimer at Delaware Park, but that was back in October 2023, and Chublin hasn’t posted a number higher than 71 in eight starts since then.

We’ll admit, there’s some risk to backing Cameo as a single since it’s unclear why she ran so strongly last time out. But she’s still young, so it’s possible taking three months off during the spring and early summer did her some good, and she’s only now finding her best stride. A bullet half-mile workout on Aug. 19 at Colonial Downs suggests Cameo is still in sharp form, so we’re willing to back her as a single since anything close to her last effort should win Monday’s contest with ease.

Saratoga: Race 6: $165,580 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:55 p.m. ET)

Labor Day is closing day at Saratoga, which means the $165,580 carryover in the $1 Pick 6 will be paid out in mandatory fashion. Even if no one picks all six winners, bettors who select the highest number of winners will earn a share of the massive pool.

There are two stakes in the sequence. Both have drawn competitive fields, and Pick 6 bettors may need to spread deep to ensure survival.

The first stakes is Race 9, the Hopeful (G1) for two-year-olds sprinting seven furlongs over the main track. The eight-horse field is packed with last-out winners, and we suggest using three of them.

RELATED: How to bet the 2025 Hopeful Stakes

#3 Romeo (3-1) is a must-use contender. He exits a 3 3/4-length romp over a next-out winner in the Bashford Manor S. at Churchill Downs, for which he earned a 96 Brisnet Speed rating that tops the Hopeful field.

#1 Curtain Call (9-2) and #5 Buetane (2-1) have run almost as fast and are worth including as backup. Curtain Call posted a 94 Brisnet Speed rating when smashing a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga by 8 1/2 lengths. Buetane earned a 93 when trouncing a six-furlong Del Mar maiden special weight by 3 1/2 lengths for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

Race 10 is the Saranac S. for three-year-olds who haven’t won a graded stakes in 2025. The 1 1/16-mile grass contest drew a dozen entries, and sorting through them isn’t easy.

Among the horses with turf experience, $100,000 allowance optional claiming winner #3 Stars and Strides (9-2), three-time stakes winner #5 Tank (15-1), and four-time stakes winner #9 Mi Bago (6-1) are all fast enough to factor on their best day. We suggest using these three alongside #7 Crudo (8-1), who is trying grass for the first time.

Crudo has shown talent on dirt, most notably wiring the 1 1/16-mile Sir Barton S. by 7 1/2 lengths. His pedigree offers potential for success on grass, and if he lights up the tote board at 8-1 odds, we’ll be well on our way to cashing a lucrative Pick 6 payoff.

Good luck!