Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mahoning’s $6,796 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Jan. 12 at Sunland Park and Turf Paradise, along with a horse to single in the $6,796 Pick 5 carryover at Mahoning Valley.

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• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Parx Challenge
• $120 Parx Feeder to 1/17 Lecomte KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Sunland Park: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:17 p.m. ET)

#12 Mark of an Angel (7-2) is a first-time starter from the red-hot barn of Justin Evans, who has gone 3-for-7 (43%) at Sunland Park this meet. Evans wins at a 27% rate with first-time starters, suggesting Mark of an Angel will be ready to challenge for victory on debut.

Cementing Mark of an Angel as the filly to beat is her pedigree. She’s a daughter of Marking (who sires 17% winners from first-time starters) out of Our Flying Angel, who won multiple stakes at age two. Our Flying Angel has already foaled Storm Leader, who likewise won multiple stakes as a juvenile. In other words, Mark of an Angel is bred to shine from an early age.

Let’s load up with a large win bet on the chestnut filly.

Selections

• #12 Mark of an Angel (7-2)
• #4 Gypsy Wildcat (9-2)
• #2 Marka (5-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #12 Mark of an Angel

Sunland Park: Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 4:37 p.m. ET)

#3 Antonios Mark (3-1) has won four straight races, including three stakes, over distances from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles. The versatile gelding arrives at Sunland Park in red-hot form and should be tough to beat under jockey Alfredo Juarez Jr., who has gone 4-for-10 (40%) at Sunland this meet.

Let’s bet Antonios Mark to win and key him on top of an exacta using #6 Mojica (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #3 Antonios Mark (3-1)
• #6 Mojica (9-2)
• #5 Holy Hank (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Antonios Mark
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 6
  Total: $35

Turf Paradise: Race 7: $8,000-$6,250 Claiming (about 1 1/16 miles on turf, 6:15 p.m. ET)

#10 For A Laugh (7-5) has run well in two starts over the Turf Paradise turf course. Last winter, he ran second by a neck in a $20,000-$15,000 allowance optional claimer. And last month, he crushed an $8,000-$6,250 claimer by five lengths.

For A Laugh looks ready to win right back for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Orlando Mojica and Robertino Diodoro. Let’s bet him to win and key him on top of an exacta using #7 Summer Lover (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #10 For A Laugh (7-5)
• #7 Summer Lover (6-1)
• #1 Crafty King (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 For A Laugh
• $10 Exacta: 10 with 7
  Total: $35

Carryover Watch

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: $6,796 Pick 5 carryover (12:15 p.m. ET)

The new week kicks off on Monday with a $6,796 carryover available to chase in the 50-cent Early Pick 5 at Mahoning Valley.

Mathematically speaking, the sequence looks straightforward to solve. The five races have drawn 42 entries in total (averaging 8.4 per race), but three of the races feature only seven horses, and there are only 37,044 possible Pick 5 outcomes to analyze before scratches.

Furthermore, we can slice that number down to 5,292 just by singling #5 Win Herbie Win (2-1) in Race 2, a $25,000 claimer for Ohio-breds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. Win Herbie Win isn’t the morning-line favorite, so if he wins as a single, it should boost the prospective Pick 5 payoff.

The favorite to win Race 2 is #3 Henry Mac (6-5). Formerly a capable stakes and allowance competitor, Henry Mac recently dropped in class to win a $15,000 claimer for Ohio-breds at Mahoning Valley by 4 1/2 lengths, earning an 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

But can Henry Mac win again while stepping up to the $25,000 level? We’re not convinced. Win Herbie Win exits back-to-back allowance wins sprinting six furlongs at Mahoning and looms as a formidable challenger while dropping into the claiming ranks. Take note, Win Herbie Win’s two allowance scores earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 88 and 87, higher than any number Henry Mac has posted in his last five starts.

There are other positives in Win Herbie Win’s corner. He’s a pure frontrunner who has set the pace in each of his last eight starts, and while there are other speed horses entered in Race 2, none have shown a consistent ability or willingness to set the pace. Thus, the stage is set for Win Herbie Win to secure an uncontested lead.

Also, pacesetters have won 33% of six-furlong sprints at Mahoning this meet, while horses drawn in posts 4-7 have outperformed horses drawn in posts 1-3 and in posts 8 and wider.

For all these reasons, we recommend Win Herbie Win as a trustworthy Pick 5 single.

Good luck!