Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Mission Avenue can strike at 20-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, June 9 at Thistledown and Finger Lakes, along with a horse to single in the $1,403 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Woodbine Mohawk each Monday in June.
• 8x Points at Presque Isle Downs: Receive 8x reward points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at Presque Isle Downs each Monday and Tuesday in June.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Presque Isle Downs Feeder to 6/14 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $50 Parx Challenge
• $30 Presque Isle Downs Challenge
• $100 Mountaineer Feeder to 6/21 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Thistledown: Race 2: Allowance (one mile on dirt, 1:20 p.m. ET)

#6 Magical Monarch (9-5) has carved out the pace on his way to second-place finishes in his last two starts over this track, distance, and class level. Those respectable showings earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 78 and 85.

There isn’t much pace in Monday’s field, so Magical Monarch is a threat to lead all the way, especially since none of his rivals have recently earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 84.

Let’s single Magical Monarch to start two double bets.

Selections

• #6 Magical Monarch (9-5)
• #2 Thunderian (5-2)
• #3 Brick Ambush (6-1)

Wagers

• $18 Double: 6 with 5
• $12 Double: 6 with 1
  Total: $30

Thistledown: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Morrigana (6-1) started twice on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs last year. She finished fourth in a non-state-restricted $25,000 maiden claimer, then ran fourth again in the Finest City S. for Pennsylvania-breds.

Morrigana has been freshened since October and is now making her first start for hot trainer Justin Radosevich, a 25% winner with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. She’s also adding Lasix, a 40% winning move for Radosevich. Perhaps switching surfaces will allow Morrigana to step forward and delivering a winning performance.

Let’s bet Morrigana to win and box her in the exacta with logical favorite #5 Vespera (8-5), spending more on the lower-paying combination with Vespera on top.

Selections

• #1 Morrigana (6-1)
• #5 Vespera (8-5)
• #2 Blue Dazzler (9-5)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #1 Morrigana
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 5
  Total: $25

Finger Lakes: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:56 p.m. ET)

Trainer Debra Breed has gone 3-for-6 (50%) saddling first-time starters at Finger Lakes since 2023, which includes a 1-for-1 tally this year.

These stats are strong enough to suggest Breed’s unraced three-year-old filly #3 Mission Avenue (20-1) is worth betting on Monday. The daughter of Mission Impazible is slated to be ridden by Steven Fret, who has gone 1-for-1 teaming up with Breed over the last two months. That one winner was Zi End, a first-time starter who won a Finger Lakes maiden special weight at 31-1 last month.

Let’s bet Mission Avenue to win and call it a day.

Selections

• #3 Mission Avenue (20-1)
• #11 Cajunette (7-2)
• #2 Adjustable Rate (15-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Mission Avenue

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $1,403 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

A large budget shouldn’t be necessary to win a share of Monday’s $1,403 Late Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

The sequence for the 50-cent wager is mathematically straightforward. The five races have attracted only 36 entries, averaging 7.2 per race. Before scratches, there are only 17,640 possible outcomes to analyze—modest for a Pick 5.

Even better, we can slice the possibilities to consider down to 2,520 simply by singling #1 Haut Les Coeurs (8-5) in Race 4, the opening leg of the Pick 5. Race 4 is a $15,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, and Haut Les Coeurs is shaping up as a standout.

Haut Les Coeurs has finished second in three straight $15,000 maiden claimers on Tapeta. In a six-furlong dash at Turfway Park, she overcame a poor start to grab runner-up honors behind a clear winner. Then in a 1 1/16-mile test over the same track, Haut Les Coeurs closed from midfield to finish 1 1/2 lengths away from victory.

Most recently, Haut Les Coeurs tackled a one-mile race at Presque Isle Downs. Making her first start off a two-month break (and her first start for trainer Michael Pappada), Haut Les Coeurs rated in sixth position for half the journey, rallied to lead in midstretch, and then settled for second place by three-quarters of a length while pulling 3 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

Those three runner-up efforts earned improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 68, 74, and 79. None of Haut Les Coeurs’ Monday rivals have ever earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 75, and the one who owns the 75—#4 Claramente (4-1)—has already finished behind Haut Les Coeurs.

In short, if Haut Les Coeurs repeats her last performance, she’ll be tough to beat. And if she improves at all in her second try over this track, she can win for fun.

Good luck!