Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Parx’s $414,260 Pick 5 mandatory payout

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 21 at Ellis Park, Thistledown, and Presque Isle Downs, along with horses to play in the mandatory payout $414,260 Pick 5 carryover at Parx Racing.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Ellis Park Monday $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Ellis Park each Monday in July for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each promotional day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $200 Ellis Park Feeder to 7/28 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $160 Mountaineer Feeder to 8/2 KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Ellis Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:16 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Brad Cox has compiled a strong 6-for-22 (27%) record debuting juveniles in turf routes at Ellis Park. That bodes well for #1 Fulleffort (7-2), an unraced son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Liam’s Map.

A half-brother to 1 1/4-mile Alabama (G1) winner Power Squeeze, Fulleffort has put together a solid work tab for Cox, including a bullet five furlongs in 1:00.00. This $425,000 yearling acquisition is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Fulleffort (7-2)
• #3 Gloves Off (8-1)
• #8 Maginnesontap (4-1)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #1 Fulleffort

Thistledown: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:20 p.m. ET)

#1 Ryka (9-2) is an unraced two-year-old filly from the barn of David Wolochuk, who wins at a spectacular 38% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Ryka has assembled a respectable work tab at Thistledown highlighted by a near-bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :48 3/5. If her 9-2 morning-line odds hold up, she’ll be a solid win play.

Selections

• #1 Ryka (9-2)
• #4 Gray Perfection (4-1)
• #7 Calling Tillie (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Ryka

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on Tapeta, 4:51 p.m. ET)

Trainer Ron Potts has done well debuting juveniles in Presque Isle Downs sprints since 2022, going 5-for-21 (24%). He has two unraced fillies entered in Race 4 on Monday, and we’ll favor the chances of #7 Tiz Goldy (6-1).

A daughter of two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents, Tiz Goldy has posted four bullet workouts at Presque Isle since June 13, including a recent half-mile in :47.00. Under jockey Huber Villa-Gomez (a 20% winner teaming up with Potts over the last two months), Tiz Goldy is an appealing win choice.

Her stablemate #3 Smooch Up (3-1) can battle with #1 Red Lite District (6-1) and #4 Blazing Brat (5-2) to round out the trifecta.

Selections

• #7 Tiz Goldy (6-1)
• #3 Smooch Up (3-1)
• #4 Blazing Brat (5-2)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #7 Tiz Goldy
• $2 Trifecta: 7 with 1,3,4 with 1,3,4 ($12)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Parx Racing: Race 5: $414,260 Pick 5 carryover (2:28 p.m. ET)

Parx is kicking off the new week on a high note with the mandatory payout of a $414,260 carryover in the 50-cent “Philly Big 5” Pick 5.

A competitive sequence is on the agenda. The five races have drawn a total of 46 horses (averaging 9.2 per race), and there are 64,000 possible outcomes.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a pair of non-favored runners with strong chances to win and thus boost the prospective Pick 5 payoff:

Race 5: #3 Dos de Oros (6-1)

The opening leg of the Philly Big 5 is a one-mile and 70-yard $7,500 claimer for horses who have never won three races. Although Dos de Oros misfired over this track and class level last time out, it could prove unwise to write him off because of one poor showing.

After all, Dos de Oros has finished second three times over this track and class level this year, earning sharp Brisnet Speed ratings along the way. And he’s sandwiched those fine efforts around some other misfires, so consistency just isn’t a strong suit for Dos de Oros. 

Two starts back, Dos de Oros crossed the finish line third by three-quarters of a length in a $12,500 claimer for non-winners of three races, earning a solid 74 Brisnet Speed rating. If he produces one of his A game efforts on Monday, he can outrun his 6-1 morning-line odds and even vie for victory.

Race 6: #8 Coloma (9-2)

This maiden special weight for two-year-olds sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs has drawn a bevy of first-time starters. One of the most appealing is Coloma, a son of Divining Rod, who sires a healthy 14% winners from first-time starters.

Coloma hails from the barn of trainer Cathal Lynch, who wins at a spectacular 31% rate with first-time starters. A series of half-mile workouts at Delaware Park should have Coloma fit for a competitive debut under hot jockey Mychel Sanchez, a 28% winner at Parx this meet and a 40% winner teaming up with Lynch over the last two months.

In addition to including Coloma on Pick 6 tickets, we’ll bet the two-year-old gelding to win.

Wager on Race 6

• $25 to win on #8 Coloma

Good luck!