Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presque Isle Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, June 15 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Santa Anita, along with a horse to single in the $2,011 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $96 Parx Feeder to 6/25 Churchill Downs SFBC Bonus Feeder
• $80 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 6/19 Churchill Downs KDBC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Presque Isle Downs Challenge
• $51 Mountaineer Bet and Set Feeder to 6/28 Churchill Downs Haskell Challenge Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 3:43 p.m. ET)

#3 Allura (7-2) is an unraced filly from the barn of Kelsey Danner. In 2021, Danner compiled a sharp 4-for-19 (21%) record saddling first-time starters on turf.

Allure has put together a respectable work tab on Tapeta at Turfway Park, highlighted by a bullet three furlongs from the starting gate in :35 3/5. Let’s place a win bet on the bay filly.

Selections

• #3 Allura (7-2)
• #7 Maid of Steel (9-2)
• #1 Summer Dream (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #3 Allura

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Big Boy Thunder (9-2) has shown some ability competing on Tapeta and Turfway Park, finishing second by a head in a $30,000 maiden claimer and second by 4 1/2 lengths in a $50,000 maiden claimer.

Early speed is one of Big Boy Thunder’s strong suits, and his speed could carry well while switching to dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis. It helps that he’ll be guided by red-hot apprentice jockey Summer Pauly, a 33% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet who rides with a five-pound weight allowance.

Let’s place a win bet on Big Boy Thunder, then key him over first-time starter #4 Incredible Power (3-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Big Boy Thunder (9-2)
• #4 Incredible Power (3-1)
• #7 Fast Jimmy (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Big Boy Thunder
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 4
  Total: $25

Santa Anita: Race 6: Affirmed S. (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 6:30 p.m. ET)

After finishing fourth in his debut sprinting against future Pat Day Mile (G2) winner Crude Velocity, #5 Decisive Win (7-2) relished stretching out in distance for a one-mile maiden special weight on May 22 at Santa Anita. He led all the way to dominate by 5 1/2 lengths with a flashy 96 Brisnet Speed rating.

Decisive Win looks like a talented prospect, and there’s a chance he’ll shake loose on an uncontested lead in the Affirmed. Let’s bet him to win and key him over Robert B. Lewis (G3) third-place finisher #4 Secured Freedom (2-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Decisive Win (7-2)
• #4 Secured Freedom (2-1)
• #2 Litmus Test (7-5)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Decisive Way
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 4
  Total: $25

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $2,011 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)

If you’re planning to pursue Monday’s $2,011 carryover in the 50-cent Early Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs, but you’re not sure where to begin in assembling tickets, you’ve come to the right place.

We’ve analyzed the entries and identified #2 Time for an Angel (9-5) in Race 3 as a logical single worth building tickets around. Before scratches, the Early Pick 5 contains 35 horses (averaging seven per race) and 16,464 possible outcomes. Singling Time for an Angel drops the possibilities to consider down to just 2,744.

Best single: Race 3: #2 Time for an Angel (9-5)

Race 3 is a $13,500 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. The conditions should be a perfect fit for Time for an Angel.

Time for an Angel has won three of her last five starts at Presque Isle Downs. Her two defeats came in a six-furlong $40,000 allowance optional claimer (where the competition was too tough) and a one-mile and 70-yard $13,500 starter optional claimer (where the distance may have been a bit too long).

In contrast, Time for an Angel has dominated her last two starts sprinting six furlongs at the $13,500 starter optional claiming level. On September 17, she led all the way to win by six lengths with an 83 Brisnet Speed rating. On May 25, she again led all the way to score by 4 3/4 lengths with an identical 83 Brisnet Speed rating. Both of those numbers are higher than the par winning number (80) for Monday’s conditions.

Time for an Angel is the only definite frontrunner entered in Race 3. Since pacesetters have won 41% of six-furlong sprints at Presque Isle Downs this meet, Time for an Angel has every chance to get out in front and never look back for trainer Scooter Davis, who has compiled a sensational 11-for-23 (48%) record at Presque Isle Downs this meet.

Throw in the presence of hot jockey Rosario Montanez (a 24% winner at Presque Isle this meet and a 44% winner teaming up with Davis over the last two months), and Time for an Angel is a logical Pick 5 single.

Good luck!