Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presque Isle Pick 5 singles

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 7 at Finger Lakes, Parx Racing, and Fort Erie, along with two horses to single in the $872 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• British Racing $10 Money Back: Receive up to $10 back on your first single-horse win wager if your horse runs second in selected British races from May 17 through Aug. 31.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Parx Feeder to 7/14 Ellis Park MMBC Qualifier
• $30 Parx Challenge
• $160 Mountaineer Feeder to 7/20 Woodbine BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:58 p.m. ET)

After cracking the trifecta in a couple of maiden claimers sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct, #4 Sounds of Summer (7-2) should appreciate tackling a maiden special weight at Finger Lakes. The 74 Brisnet Speed rating she posted in her latest effort is higher than the par winning number (72) for Monday’s conditions at Finger Lakes.

Throw in the fact trainer Charlton Baker has gone 4-for-15 (27%) at Finger Lakes this meet, and Sounds of Summer is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also play her on top of a trifecta using #3 Valued Dreamer (5-2) and #5 Better Be Smart (2-1) underneath.

Selections

• #4 Sounds of Summer (7-2)
• #3 Valued Dreamer (5-2)
• #5 Better Be Smart (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 Sounds of Summer
• $5 Trifecta: 4 with 3,5 with 3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt, 3:26 p.m. ET)

#7 Maximus Meridius (4-5) enjoyed a productive winter campaign, winning the Gravesend S. and Toboggan S. sprinting at Aqueduct. He boasts strong Brisnet Speed ratings (including a few triple-digit numbers) and should be tough to beat while tackling an allowance for Pennsylvania-breds at Parx.

Let’s bet Maximus Meridius on top of an exacta using #3 Grahmalamadingdong (6-1) for second place. The latter has won two of his last three starts sprinting at Parx.

Selections

• #7 Maximus Meridius (4-5)
• #3 Grahmalamadingdong (6-1)
• #2 Roan Burgundy (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 3

Fort Erie: Race 1: $8,000 Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 4:30 p.m. ET)

#4 Julie’s Mist (2-1) has spent most of her career competing on turf and synthetic. But she’s also 1-for-1 on dirt, having defeated a next-out winner to nab a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Fort Erie on May 27.

We’ll forgive her subsequent misfire on turf and assume Julie’s Mist will bounce back while returning to dirt. After all, hot trainer Anthony Alderson wins at a 40% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt.

#3 Signature Ring (3-1), who hasn’t tasted defeat in her last five dirt starts at Fort Erie, has a shot to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #4 Julie’s Mist (2-1)
• #3 Signature Ring (3-1)
• #5 Silver Bullet Lady (5-2)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #4 Julie’s Mist
• $6 Exacta: 4 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $872 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved during Friday’s Independence Day card, the 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs features an $872 carryover for Monday.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a pair of horses worth singling at short prices:

Race 6: #1 Diamond Dust (9-5)

Trainer Scooter Davis has enjoyed phenomenal success at Presque Isle Downs this meet, compiling a 16-11-1-3 record so far. That’s a spectacular 69% win rate and a near-perfect 94% in-the-money rate.

Davis can add another win to his tally with Diamond Dust, the favorite to win this $40,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. Diamond Dust boasts a flashy 20-9-6-2 career record at Presque Isle, and in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on June 11, he dueled through intense fractions of :21.75 and :44.46 before turning back a challenger to win by a neck.

Diamond Dust is facing only five rivals on Monday, and his recent Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings are much sharper than those belonging to #6 Snowname (4-1), his primary pace rival on paper. Therefore, we anticipate Diamond Dust will dash to the front from post 1 and lead all the way under red-hot jockey Rosario Montanez, a 64% winner teaming up with Davis over the last two months.

Race 7: #4 Our Lady (9-5)

The feature event on Monday at Presque Isle is Race 7, the Malvern Rose S. for Pennsylvania-bred three-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. The eight-horse field is led by Woodbine shipper Our Lady, whose 2-for-2 record on Tapeta includes blowout wins with sharp Brisnet Speed ratings.

Our Lady debuted on May 4 in a six-furlong maiden special weight. She led all the way to win easily by 6 1/4 lengths, earning a 94 Brisnet Speed rating that tops the Malvern Rose field by five points.

On May 24, Our Lady tackled a six-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer. This time she settled in second place before advancing into the teeth of a hot pace to take over and win by 4 1/4 lengths with an 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

Our Lady has posted sharp workouts in advance of her Presque Isle debut and should be tough to beat while sticking to Tapeta.

Good luck!