Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Riva Red looks to improve

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 6 at Colonial Downs and Ellis Park, including a second-time starter at 6-1 odds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $50 Late Pick 5 Insurance at Colonial Downs: Opt in to receive up to $50 back on your Late Pick 5 wagers at Colonial Downs if you have four out of five winning legs.
• $100 Late Pick 5 Insurance at Ellis Park: Opt in to receive $100 back on your Late Pick 5 wagers at Ellis Park if you have four out of five winning legs.
• $1,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It at Horseshoe Indianapolis: Opt in and hit the Late Pick 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis for a chance to split a $1,500 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $64 Ellis Park Bet and Set Feeder to 7/12 Saratoga BCBC Qualifier
• $50 Ellis Park Challenge
• $80 Ellis Park Feeder to 7/10 Saratoga KDBC/NHC Bonus Feeder
• $88 Mountaineer Feeder to 7/17 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 11:13 a.m. ET)

#1 Riva Red (6-1) debuted on June 12 in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Laurel Park. She got away to a poor start and eventually finished fifth behind runaway winner Harper’s Corner, who returned to dominate Saratoga’s Schuylerville S. by 5 1/4 lengths.

Riva Red is trained by Hamilton Smith, who wins at a strong 26% rate with second-time starters, so there’s a good chance Riva Red will improve off her debut. At 6-1, she’s worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #1 Riva Red (6-1)
• #2 Stellina (5-2)
• #3 Legend’s Girl (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #1 Riva Red

Ellis Park: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:16 p.m. ET)

Unraced juvenile filly #4 Scarlett Begonia (2-1) has put together an eye-catching series of quick workouts for trainer Brad Cox, including a bullet half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47. The daughter of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Life Is Good is bred for speed, and take note, her half-sister Zaajel won her debut at age two before going on to take the seven-furlong Forward Gal (G2) and 1 1/16-mile Mother Goose (G2).

We’ll bet Scarlett Begonia to win and key her over fellow first-time starter #7 Miss Anna (8-1) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #4 Scarlett Begonia (2-1)
• #7 Miss Anna (8-1)
• #5 She Ain’t Jokin (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Scarlett Begonia
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $30

Ellis Park: Race 8: Allowance (seven furlongs on dirt, 4:12 p.m. ET)

#8 Rebel Instinct (9-5) looked like a possible Triple Crown contender after he won a quick one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct last November with a 94 Brisnet Speed rating. But unfortunately, he didn’t race again until May 31, when he finished second in a one-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs.

Rebel Instinct ran well at Churchill. He made a midrace move into a hot pace before flattening out to finish 3 1/4 lengths behind the winner. Cutting back to seven furlongs in his second start back can send Rebel Instinct to the winner’s circle for high-percentage trainer Chad Brown.

We’ll make a large win bet our primary play. Then we’ll add an exacta using #6 Corona de Oro (7-2) for second place. The latter is dropping down in class and distance after finishing third in the Lexington (G3), 11th in the Preakness (G1), and fifth in the Matt Winn (G3).

Selections

• #8 Rebel Instinct (9-5)
• #6 Corona de Oro (7-2)
• #7 Ezum (5-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #8 Rebel Instinct
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 6
  Total: $50

Good luck!