Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Sunland Park Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, March 2 at Sunland Park, Will Rogers Downs, and Turf Paradise, including a horse to single in Sunland’s $845 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 5x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Receive 5x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing Monday in March.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Parx Challenge
• $160 Parx Feeder to 3/7 Tampa Bay Derby/Oaklawn KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Sunland Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:25 p.m. ET)

#7 Roki (9-2) struggled when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Turf Paradise, finishing last of 10. But he made an early move after breaking slowly and got within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead after the opening quarter-mile, so he showed at least a little talent.

Hot trainer Justin Evans wins at a 27% rate with second-time starters, and a bullet five-furlong workout in :58 3/5 at Sunland last month suggests Roki can move forward on Monday. The presence of hot jockey Luis Negron (a 44% winner teaming up with Evans over the last two months) adds to the appeal.

Let’s bet Roki to win and key him over logical favorite #8 Honor the Giants (8-5) in a small exacta.

Selections

• #7 Roki (9-2)
• #8 Honor the Giants (8-5)
• #1 Dialed Who (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Roki
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 8
  Total: $25

Will Rogers Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 4:08 p.m. ET)

#4 Sunday Night Code (3-1) has shown flashes of ability at Remington Park, most notably finishing second by three-quarters of a length in a 1 1/16-mile $20,000 maiden claimer. That effort earned a 60 Brisnet Speed rating, stamping Sunday Night Code as one of the fastest horses entered in Race 5.

Sunday Night Code may find the competition a bit more manageable at Will Rogers Downs, where trainer Michael Biehler has compiled a strong 6-2-1-2 (33%) record this meet. A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #4 Sunday Night Code (3-1)
• #5 Gospel Clarity (5-2)
• #2 Forbidden Lover (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Sunday Night Code

Turf Paradise: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#8 Looking for You (4-1) is an unraced three-year-old from the barn of Vann Belvoir, who wins at a respectable 13% rate with first-time starters. A series of fast workouts at Turf Paradise, including five furlongs in :59 4/5 and four furlongs in a bullet :47, suggest Looking for You has the talent to win on debut.

At 4-1, Looking for You is worthy of a large win bet.

Selections

• #8 Looking for You (4-1)
• #4 Running Wrangler (8-1)
• #5 Every Third Day (7-2)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #8 Looking for You

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park: Race 5: $845 Pick 5 carryover (4:09 p.m. ET)

Sunland Park is celebrating the new week with an $845 Pick 5 carryover.

It might not be the largest prize pool you’ll ever see, but it nevertheless adds value to the 50-cent wager.

The Pick 5 spans Race 5 through Race 9, a sequence containing 45 horses (averaging nine per race) and 55,296 possible outcomes before scratches.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, our best recommendation is #3 Lucky Vegas (2-1) in Race 6, a $10,000 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on dirt.

Lucky Vegas enters in strong form. Between Nov. 10 and Dec. 9, she rattled off three consecutive wins sprinting six furlongs at Zia Park. First she trounced a $7,500 claimer by 5 1/4 lengths. Then she rallied to nab an allowance by three-quarters of a length over a next-out winner. Finally, she prevailed by half a length in a $10,000 starter optional claimer.

Some bettors may underestimate Lucky Vegas since she exits a fifth-place finish in the 5 1/2-furlong Bold Ego S. at Sunland Park. But the competition was tough, and Lucky Vegas was outsprinted early against a blazing pace. She did pass a bevy of rivals in the final furlong to finish only 4 1/4 lengths behind the winner, in the process earning an 81 Brisnet Speed rating four points higher than the par winning number for Monday’s conditions.

Keep in mind, Lucky Vegas went 2-for-2 at Sunland Park last year, winning a $6,250 claimer and an $8,000 starter optional claimer. Dropping back down in class should make Lucky Vegas tough to beat in her second start since being claimed by red-hot trainer Sherry Armstrong, a 30% winner at Sunland this meet and a 41% winner with horses running for the second time following a claim.

Good luck!