Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Sunland’s $2,786 Pick 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Jan. 19 at Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, along with a ticket for the $2,786 Pick 5 carryover at Sunland Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $5,000 WIN Ladder at Fair Grounds: Hit $10+ single-horse win wagers in selected races at Fair Grounds on Monday to climb the Win Ladder and claim your share of a $5,000 prize pool.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 1/25 Fair Grounds/Aqueduct KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 4:15 p.m. ET)

#3 Prepped (9-5) rallied strongly after a troubled start to finish second racing one mile over this course and class level on Dec. 20. He was beaten only a head and gained two lengths through the final furlong.

Trainer Cherie DeVaux has been hot at Fair Grounds this meet, winning at a 23% rate, and Prepped can keep that momentum going with a victory of Monday.

Let’s bet Prepped to win and key him over #5 Road Trippin (9-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #3 Prepped (9-5)
• #5 Road Trippin (9-2)
• #2 Prince of Light (4-1)

Wagers

• $22 to win on #3 Prepped
• $8 Exacta: 3 with 5
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 3: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on turf, 4:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Soi Ngern (7-2) has shown promise in his two turf starts, finishing third by margins of three-quarters of a length and 1 3/4 lengths in six-furlong maiden special weights at Santa Anita.

Now Soi Ngern is dropping in class for a $50,000 maiden claimer. Facing easier competition should help Soi Ngern spring a mild upset over #5 Video Review (8-5) and #2 Artic Power (9-5), so let’s place a win bet accordingly.

Selections

• #1 Soi Ngern (7-2)
• #2 Artic Power (9-5)
• #5 Video Review (8-5)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #1 Soi Ngern

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#8 Tan Chulo (10-1) is an interesting longshot. He debuted over this course, distance, and class level on Dec. 27, tracking blazing fractions of :21.26 and :44.35 before weakening to finish fifth by 3 1/4 lengths. The fourth-place finisher, pacesetter He Gone, subsequently bounced back to win a six-furlong maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs.

If Tan Chulo avoids getting sucked into a destructive pace on Monday, he can step forward and vie for victory. We’ll try betting him to win and keying him over #5 Soulman (5-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #8 Tan Chulo (10-1)
• #5 Soulman (5-1)
• #1 Vitruvius (9-2)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #8 Tan Chulo
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 5
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Sunland Park: Race 5: $2,786 Pick 5 carryover (4:09 p.m. ET)

Sunland Park is celebrating Martin Luther King Jr. Day with a Monday card featuring a $2,786 carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5.

Here’s how we’ll approach the sequence on a $36 budget:

Wager

• 50-cent Pick 5: 1,2,3,8 with 3,7,10 with 3,7 with 6 with 1,2,8 ($36)

Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt)

#2 Sapello Samba (6-1) has placed against stakes competition at Sunland Park, and two starts back, she trounced a five-furlong allowance at Zia Park with a 76 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against Monday’s field. However, #1 Dream Money (8-1), #3 Make Up a Story (4-1), and #8 Hoodwinked Kate (6-1) are all fast enough to challenge when at their best.

Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs on dirt)

There are plenty of contenders to choose from in this allowance for New Mexico-bred fillies and mares. We’ll aim to survive using only three: the stakes-placed duo of #3 Thatsaterriblidea (3-1) and #7 Mo Money Molly (9-2) plus the consistent allowance competitor #10 Punkin Puddin (7-2).

Race 7: La Senora S. (six furlongs on dirt)

#7 Caprock Cutie (2-1) is rapidly improving. Last time out, she wired the 6 1/2-furlong Lea County S. at Zia Park by 4 1/2 lengths. The only other filly we’ll use is #3 Mark’s Sassy Girl (5-2), a versatile filly who lost her rider at the start of the Lea County.

Race 8: Corralito Steak House S. (six furlongs on dirt)

#6 Speed Merchant (6-5) was tons the best in the 6 1/2-furlong Hobbs Fall Classic S. at Zia Park last month, romping by nine lengths with a sharp 85 Brisnet Speed rating. He’s 4-for-5 lifetime and should be tough to beat in the Corralito Steak House.

Race 9: $7,500 Claiming (six furlongs on dirt)

#2 Marked Cash (8-5) crushed a $7,500 claimer at Sunland Park two weeks ago by 9 1/2 lengths, earning a strong 86 Brisnet Speed rating. But that effort marked a huge step forward form Marked Cash’s other recent races. If he regresses on Monday, #1 Royal Lineage (5-1) and #8 Nobody’s Perfect (10-1) may have upset potential.

Good luck!