Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: The Last Delivery at 12-1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Oct. 20 at Mahoning Valley and Finger Lakes, along with analysis of the $3,190 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

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Best Bets and Quick Picks

Mahoning Valley: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 12:15 p.m. ET)

The opening race of the Mahoning Valley meet looks ripe for conquest by #3 Striking Lady (4-5), a stakes-experienced filly who has placed in all five of her starts against maiden special weight competition.

Striking Lady is the only obvious frontrunner in this small and seemingly paceless field, so there’s a good chance she’ll lead all the way.

#1 Holiday Betty (3-1) can battle with first-time starter #6 Divine Silence (9-2) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Striking Lady (4-5)
• #1 Holiday Betty (3-1)
• #6 Divine Silence (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 3 with 1,6 ($40)

Finger Lakes: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:29 p.m. ET)

#7 Chioke (7-2) has competed at the stakes level, finishing fifth in the Aspirant S. to the undefeated two-time stakes winner Arctic Beast. Subsequently, Chioke ran third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Finger Lakes, earning a 71 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Monday’s field.

Chioke appears to have found the perfect spot to graduate, so let’s bet him to win and key him over #6 Hamilton’s Reason (8-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #7 Chioke (7-2)
• #6 Hamilton’s Reason (8-1)
• #5 Savage State (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Chioke
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 6
  Total: $25

Finger Lakes: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 2:27 p.m. ET)

#5 The Last Delivery (12-1) has only run once, finishing sixth to the above-mentioned Arctic Beast in the Aspirant S. Dropping in class for a maiden special weight might be all The Last Delivery needs to vie for victory at double-digit odds.

Let’s keep our strategy simple with a win bet.

Selections

• #5 The Last Delivery (12-1)
• #7 Sunday’s Currency (3-1)
• #1 Broken Record (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #5 The Last Delivery

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $3,190 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)

Last week’s racing action at Presque Isle Downs wrapped up on Thursday with no one solving the 50-cent Early Pick 5. As a result, Presque Isle is kicking off the new week with a $3,190 carryover up for grabs in Monday’s Early Pick 5.

A couple of midrange price horses early in the sequence are appealing. If one or both prevail, we’ll be well on our way to cashing a lucrative payoff.

Race 1: #2 Timeless Love (5-1)

Half a dozen three-year-olds have entered this six-furlong Tapeta maiden special weight. The filly Timeless Love is worth considering as the 5-1 co-third choice on the morning line.

Timeless Love raced twice as a two-year-old last year… except she didn’t. In her first start, she dwelt at the start, then got loose and ran off without a rider. In her second start, she stumbled at the break, lost her jockey, and ran off again.

Now Timeless Love has spent over a year on the sidelines, giving her time to mature and hopefully gain a better idea of what racing is about. She enters off a fast series of workouts for red-hot trainer Eoin Harty, including a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5, which suggests she’s over her gate issues. The presence of hot jockey Antonio Gallardo cements Timeless Love as an appealing price play.

Race 2: #1 Pillow Fight (8-1)

The second leg of the Pick 5 is a $25,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds racing one mile on Tapeta. First-time starter Pillow Fight is worth using for several reasons.

For one, Pillow Fight is trained by William Walden, who wins at an impressive 20% rate with horses debuting over one mile or farther. For another, Pillow Fight is bred to run long. He’s a son of 1 1/4-mile Manhattan (G1) winner Slumber, whose progeny win at a lofty average distance of 8.0 furlongs.

Since morning-line favorite #8 Coach Rudy (8-5) is unproven on Tapeta and has been beaten by double-digit margins in all three of his starts, Pillow Fight is an intriguing alternative.

Good luck!