Monmouth Park: Analyzing the $63,002 Pick 6 mandatory payout

One day after an exciting renewal of the Haskell (G1), Monmouth Park has another great card on tap. The Sunday action at the New Jersey oval is highlighted by the mandatory payout of a $63,002 carryover in the 20-cent “Jersey Shore 6” Pick 6.

Monmouth Park, Race 5: $63,002 Pick 6 mandatory payout (2:46 p.m. ET)

Before scratches, the six races have drawn 57 horses (averaging 9.5 per race) and 620,928 possible outcomes. It’s a tricky sequence, but it’s made a bit simpler by the fact two of the races have drawn only seven entries.

One of the seven-horse fields is Race 5, the opening leg of the Pick 6. It’s the $100,000 Regret S. for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on dirt. Some bettors may opt to single #2 St. Benedicts Prep (8-5), the clear favorite on the morning line. She exits a two-length triumph in the 6 1/2-furlong Alma North S. at Laurel Park, and during the spring she competed respectably in a couple of graded stakes at Aqueduct, running second in the Distaff (G3) and fourth (beaten only one length) in the Vagrancy (G3).

But back in January, St Benedicts Prep was beaten a nose by #6 Ms. Bucchero (3-1) in the What A Summer S. sprinting six furlongs at Laurel. Ms. Bucchero hasn’t run since, but she’s posted a strong series of workouts at Monmouth in preparation for her return, and even off the layoff she could potentially maintain her edge over St. Benedicts Prep.

Ms. Bucchero has won four of her last six dirt starts. Immediately prior to the What A Summer, she won Laurel’s 6 1/2-furlong Willa On the Move S. by one length, so she arrives at Monmouth off back-to-back stakes wins.

There isn’t a crazy amount of pace entered in the Regret, which could lend an edge to Ms. Bucchero. She brings excellent Brisnet E1 and E2 pace ratings to the table, so there’s a good chance she’ll work out a comfortable trip setting or pressing a modest tempo. That could compromise St. Benedicts Prep, who has been settling off the pace in recent starts.

Pick 6 bettors should consider including both St. Benedicts Prep and Ms. Bucchero on their tickets. But if you can only afford one, we recommend Ms. Bucchero. We also suggest betting a cold exacta keying Ms. Bucchero on top of St. Benedicts Prep:

Wager on Race 5

• Race 5, $15 Exacta: 6 with 2

Good luck!