Monmouth: Single for Sunday’s $49,347 Pick 5 carryover

Fans of Monmouth Park will be happy to hear the Sunday card features a $49,347 carryover in the 50-cent Early Pick 5.

Favorites struggled at Monmouth on Saturday, going 1-for-8. Both the Early Pick 5 and the Late Pick 5 went unsolved. The carryovers from both pools have been combined into one lucrative offering for Sunday.

Monmouth Park: Race 1: $49,347 Pick 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

Mathematically speaking, Sunday’s Early Pick 5 looks straightforward to solve. If you exclude five main-track-only entrants from the count, the five races have drawn only 34 horses (averaging 6.8 per race), leaving us with 14,112 possible Pick 5 outcomes to analyze.

Those are modest numbers, and we can slice the number of outcomes to consider down to 1,764 just by singling #2 Paris Carver (2-1) in Race 5, the closing leg of the Early Pick 5.

Best single: Race 5: #2 Paris Carver (2-1)

Fillies and mares will dash 5 1/2 furlongs on turf in Race 5, a $20,000 allowance optional claimer. The conditions appear perfect for Paris Carver, a three-year-old filly conditioned by hot trainer Jorge Delgado, a 26% winner at Monmouth Park this meet.

Formerly based in Europe, Paris Carver has contested only one turf sprint since arriving in North America. In a maiden special weight dashing about 5 1/2 furlongs at Monmouth Park, she tracked the pace in second place before charging home on top by one length, earning an 88 Brisnet Speed rating. That topped the 85 Brisnet Speed rating she earned when finishing third in a five-furlong maiden special weight on Tapeta in her North American debut.

Returning to the course and approximate distance of her debut win should help Paris Carver bounce back after falling in the July 3 Wild Applause S. at Saratoga. None of her Race 5 rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 84 on turf, so a peak performance from Paris Carver should yield a comfortable victory.

Cementing Paris Carver as a compelling single is the fact she’ll be ridden by red-hot jockey Edwin Gonzalez, who has compiled a strong 9-for-25 (36%) record at Monmouth this meet.

Good luck!