Oaklawn: Analyzing the $110,127 Classix Pick 6 carryover

The $1 Classix Pick 6 at Oaklawn Park has accumulated a massive non-jackpot carryover worth $110,127 for Saturday’s card.

Oaklawn Park, Race 5: $110,127 Pick 6 carryover (3:24 p.m. ET)

The Pick 6 sequence features 59 horses (averaging about 9.8 per race) and 831,600 possible outcomes before scratches. It’s a difficult sequence, but not inscrutable.

If you’re looking to simplify the ticket assembly process with a single, check out #6 Moonlight Dash (2-1) in Race 5, a six-furlong allowance for fillies and mares.

Moonlight Dash was eased and pulled up when debuting over the Churchill Downs turf course on May 9. She returned to the work tab later that month, but didn’t race again until Nov. 9. At that time, she switched to dirt for a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, and she led all the way to dominate eight rivals by 6 1/4 lengths.

That big win earned Moonlight Dash a 92 Brisnet Speed rating. Only one of her Race 5 rivals has recently run faster: #2 Key to Success (5-1), who has posted numbers of 93, 92, and 91 while winning three straight allowances. But those wins came at Thistledown, and Key to Success is 0-for-14 at Oaklawn Park. She could be vulnerable while returning to Oaklawn.

As a result, Moonlight Dash is a compelling favorite. If she improves at all in her second start off the layoff, she’ll be tough to catch.

The feature event in the Pick 6 sequence is Race 8, the 1 1/8-mile Tinsel S. for three-year-olds and older horses. #7 Rattle N Roll (8-5) is the morning-line favorite, but he’s lost five straight races and has been in mixed form as of late, most recently finishing fifth in the Clark (G2). The deep-closing veteran may prevail while dropping in class, but he can’t be trusted as a single.

#4 Willy D’s (9-5) is the other horse we suggest using in the Pick 6. The four-year-old gelding has been freshened since finishing a pacesetting seventh in the Sept. 27 Lukas Classic (G2). He’d previously been in strong form, wiring a Saratoga $100,000 allowance optional claimer and the Michael G. Schaefer Memorial S. before finishing a rallying second in the Charles Town Classic (G2).

Those three efforts yielded strong Brisnet Speed ratings of 108, 99, and 96. Willy D’s enters the Tinsel off sharp workouts, and if he rebounds in his return from a three-month break, he can hold off Rattle N Roll down the Oaklawn homestretch.

Bonus: Turfway Park, Race 10: $3,533 Super High 5 carryover (10:25 p.m. ET)

No one solved the $1 Super High 5 on Friday at Turfway Park, triggering a $3,533 carryover into Saturday’s card.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 10, a $30,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. #4 Versed (3-1) is a logical favorite and a must-use contender after earning a sharp 70 Brisnet Speed rating when second in a one-mile $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last month.

But #9 Put Me in Coach (12-1) is a compelling longshot we recommend using, including on top of your tickets.

Put Me In Coach debuted with a respectable third-place finish in a five-furlong $25,000 maiden claimer over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf. He chased blazing splits of :21.05 and :43.60 in third place and held his position to the finish line. He finished only one length behind rallying runner-up Jr Sweet Feet, who returned to win his next start in a $40,000 maiden claimer.

Horses exiting races at Horseshoe Indianapolis often perform well at Turfway Park. Switching to Tapeta may unlock a winning performance from Put Me in Coach.

Good luck!