Picks: $600 KDBC/NHC Qualifier, $2,300 Ellis Park carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for a $600 tournament and a $2,300 Super High 5 carryover on Saturday at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Ellis Park.

Horseshoe Indianapolis: $600 Indiana Derby KDBC/NHC Qualifier tournament

Tournament players have an opportunity to earn entries into the 2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge (KDBC) and 2026 National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) by competing in Saturday’s $600 Indiana Derby KDBC/NHC Qualifier on TwinSpires.com.

Players must wager their entire $300 bankroll across at least five races at Horseshoe Indianapolis (minimum $30 per race) to climb the leaderboard.

In addition, Saturday’s Horseshoe Indianapolis action is the focus of a second TwinSpires.com tournament. The $100 Indiana Derby Challenge features similar rules, except there’s no minimum amount to bet per race and the prizes are cash.

The feature event on the card is Race 12, the 1 1/16-mile Indiana Derby (G3) for three-year-olds. Tournament players should strongly consider betting #6 Tip Top Thomas (6-1). Runner-up in a quality renewal of the one-mile Champagne (G1) as a juvenile, Tip Top Thomas is rounding back into form following a six-month layoff. Last time out, he wired a one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct by 3 1/4 lengths.

In his allowance win, Tip Top Thomas blazed his final quarter-mile in :23.96 and earned a 103 Brisnet Speed rating. If he sets or presses a relaxed pace in the Indiana Derby (which seems likely), he can kick on down the homestretch and spring a mild upset over #3 Coal Battle (7-2), #7 Big Truzz (9-2), and #9 Instant Replay (4-1). We recommend tournament bettors play the trifecta accordingly:

Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 12 wager

• Race 12, $5 Trifecta: 6 with 3,7,9 with 3,7,9 ($30)

Ellis Park: $2,300 Super High 5 carryover

Saturday’s opening race at Ellis Park features a $2,300 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a $50,000 maiden claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt. #2 Ship Ship Hooray (9-5) looks like the horse to beat. His last two dirt starts have yielded a third and a fifth in maiden special weights sprints at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. The Brisnet Speed ratings he earned (90 and 80) are the two highest belonging to any of the horses in Saturday’s field. We suggest keying Ship Ship Hooray on top in the Super High 5.

Underneath, a couple of longshot first-time starters offer appeal. #6 Guapo (20-1) and #7 Kohoutek (8-1) are conditioned by trainers who respectively win at 20% and 23% rates with horses debuting in maiden claimers. These stats suggest Guapo and Kohoutek shouldn’t be counted out of the mix for top-five finishes.

Ellis Park Race 1 wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with 6,7,8 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with 6,7,8 with 3,4,5 ($18)
• $1 Super High 5: 2 with 3,4,5 with 6,7 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 ($12)
  Total: $48

Good luck!