Picks and plays for Saturday tournaments at Keeneland

The stakes-packed first Saturday of the Keeneland fall meet is the focus of two enticing tournaments on TwinSpires.com.

$100 Keeneland Challenge tournament
$700 Keeneland Feeder to 10/11 Keeneland BCBC-NHC Challenge tournament

The $100 Keeneland Challenge awards cash prizes, while the $700 Keeneland Feeder to 10/11 Keeneland BCBC-NHC Challenge will award at least one entry into next Saturday’s $3,500 Keeneland BCBC-NHC Challenge tournament on TwinSpires.

Both tournaments require betting your entire bankroll across at least five races at Keeneland; the $700 Keeneland Feeder requires you to bet at least $35 in a given race for it to count toward the five-race minimum.

Race 2 wager

If you want to climb the leaderboard early, try a win bet on #2 Commandment (7-2) in Race 2, a maiden special weight for juveniles sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Purchased for $500,000 as a yearling, Commandment is a son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief out of Sippican Harbor, who won the Spinaway (G1) at age two. This is a pedigree geared toward early maturity, and take note, Commandment is trained by Brad Cox, who has gone 13-for-44 (30%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Keeneland fall meets since 2020.

Commandment has put together an encouraging work tab in preparation for his debut and is slated to be ridden by five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., so if his 7-2 morning-line odds hold up, Commandment will offer betting value.

• $35 to win on #2 Commandment

Race 9 wager

One of the feature events on the card is Race 9, the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) for two-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles over the main track. The undefeated #6 Ted Noffey (4-5) is a formidable favorite after unleashing a strong finishing kick to dominate Saratoga’s Hopeful (G1) by 8 1/2 lengths, earning a powerful 102 Brisnet Speed rating.

Let’s bet Ted Noffey over #1 Blackout Time (10-1) in an exacta. Blackout Time finished second in his debut sprinting before stretching out to smash a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park by 9 3/4 lengths over a pair of next-out winners. Sharp workouts since then suggest Blackout Time has a big chance to outrun his morning-line odds for trainer Kenny McPeek, a three-time winner of the Breeders’ Futurity.

• $35 Exacta: 6 with 1

Race 10 wagers

The final stakes on the card is Race 10, the Turf Mile (G1). The one-mile grass contest has drawn a competitive 12-horse field, and we’re intrigued by #12 Jonquil (15-1), a three-year-old facing older horses.

Although Jonquil has spent much of his career sprinting, he’s been at his best racing one mile. In the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (G1), a French classic, he finished second by a head against 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Henri Matisse while coming home one length clear of Camille Pissarro, who won the Prix du Jockey Club (G1) in his next start.

Jonquil’s only other start over one mile came in the Celebration Mile (G2) at Goodwood, his most recent start. He prevailed by a neck over older rivals.

Goodwood features a relatively tight turn, at least by European standards, so Jonquil’s win in the Celebration Mile bodes well for his chances of handling two tight turns at Keeneland. At 15-1, he’s worthy of a win bet plus an exacta keying him over #4 Diego Velazquez (7-2) and #8 Program Trading (9-2).

• $25 to win on #12 Jonquil
• $5 Exacta: 12 with 4,8 ($10)
  Total: $35

Good luck!