Picks for Sunday Super High 5, Pick 6 carryovers at Ellis, Colonial

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to bet in Sunday carryovers at Ellis Park and Colonial Downs.

Ellis Park: Race 1: $9,171 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

Bettors who play the $1 Super High 5 in Sunday’s opening race at Ellis Park will compete for a share of a $9,171 carryover.

Race 1 is a maiden special weight for juveniles dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. #7 Mr. Knick (12-1) and #9 Pretty Good (4-1) are early scratches, which will allow the also-eligible entrants #13 Flaming Fast (30-1) and #14 Chasing Em (30-1) to start.

We rank #11 Groundswell (7-2) as the horse to beat and recommend keying him on top in the Super High 5.

Groundswell showed promise when debuting in an off-the-turf maiden special weight sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Ellis. He dueled for the early lead, then weakened in the homestretch to finish fourth, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths while earning a respectable 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Mark Casse wins at a solid 17% rate with second-time starters, and since Groundswell is a son of Omaha Beach out of a mare by Medaglia d’Oro, he’s eligible to improve while switching to turf. We’re confident Groundswell will deliver a strong showing on Sunday.

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $1,661 Pick 6 carryover (2:00 p.m. ET)

The elusive 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs often goes unsolved. Such was the case on Saturday, which triggered a $1,661 carryover into Sunday’s card.

If you’re planning to chase the carryover and want a single to build tickets around, our best recommendation—at a bit of a price—is #6 Smoke Trail (4-1) in Race 5, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds racing one mile on turf.

#2 Hide N Watch (2-1) is the morning-line favorite, but he finished a non-threatening second at this course, distance, and class level on July 10, earning a modest 64 Brisnet Speed rating.

In contrast, Smoke Trail earned a 77 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on turf at Churchill Downs. He followed up with a respectable fourth-place finish racing one mile at Ellis Park.

Smoke Trail should find the competition easier at Colonial Downs, and take note, he’s adding blinkers, which is a 20% winning move for trainer John Ennis. Smoke Trail appears well spotted to break his maiden, hence our view that he’s a trustworthy Pick 6 single.

Good luck!