Saturday carryover picks: $23,991 Pick 6, $3,618 Super High 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to bet in Saturday’s $3,618 Super High 5 carryover at Churchill Downs and $23,991 Pick 6 carryover at Santa Anita.

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $3,618 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

The opening race on the Saturday card at Churchill Downs feature a $3,618 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a $20,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Two logical contenders are #3 Ashes and Diamonds (2-1) and #7 Lexi’s Melody (5-1).

Ashes and Diamonds is dropping in class. Her last two dirt starts have come in six-furlong $50,000 claimers; she finished third and seventh. Her third-place finish yielded a 79 Brisnet Speed rating equal to the par winning number for Saturday’s conditions, so dropping down to the $20,000 level should make Ashes and Diamonds formidable.

As for Lexi’s Melody, she earned a 79 Brisnet Speed rating when rallying from far back to finish third in a recent six-furlong $20,000 claimer at Saratoga. A fast early/slow late pace helped her chances, but she’s put up Brisnet Speed ratings in the 73-79 range in each of her last four starts, so Lexi’s Melody is a consistent filly who warrants respect in Race 6.

We suggest building tickets around Ashes and Diamonds and Lexi’s Melody, counting on one to win and the other to finish somewhere in the top four.

Santa Anita: Race 5: $23,991 Pick 6 carryover (6:10 p.m. ET)

Saturday’s stakes-packed card at Santa Anita features a $23,991 carryover in the $2 Pick 6. Santa Anita estimates the final pool will reach $150,000.

Bettors seeking a single to build tickets around are advised to check out one of the non-stakes races in the sequence. Specifically, Race 6, a maiden special weight for California-bred juvenile fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

The morning-line favorite is #3 Not So Merry Mary (9-5), and she looks formidable. After debuting with a fourth-place finish at this class level on turf, the bay filly switched to dirt for her second start (again at this class level) and took a big step forward. She rallied from fourth place in a 10-horse field to finish second, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths while earning a respectable 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

In her second start, Not So Merry Mary defeated four of the eight rivals she’ll face in Race 6. If Not So Merry Mary takes even a small step forward in her second start on dirt, she can cruise to victory as a short-priced Pick 6 single.

Good luck!