Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 10-1 in the Clark Stakes

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Nov. 28 at Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs, including a 10-1 longshot in the Clark (G2).

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $10,000 Win Ladder at Churchill Downs: Hit $10+ single-horse win wagers in selected races at Churchill Downs to move up the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $10,000 prize pool. 
• Churchill Downs 1 Million Points Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Churchill Downs each Friday in November for a chance to split a 1 million rewards points daily prize pool.
• 5x Points at The Meadowlands: Receive 5x points on all wagers (excluding show bets) at The Meadowlands each Friday in November.
• Gulfstream Park 15% Across the Board Boost: Receive a 15% odds boost (up to $25 for the day) on any winning individual win, place, or show wager, or combination of win, place, and show wagers, at Gulfstream Park each Friday in November.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $300 Fair Grounds Feeder to 12/13 Turfway Synthetic Betting Championship
• $2,000 Clark Betting Challenge
• $200 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $100 Charles Town Feeder to 12/6 Remsen KDBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Belle of Liberty (3-1) debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint at Keeneland. After racing in midfield, she weakened slightly to finish eighth, beaten only 6 1/4 lengths by next-out stakes winner Map of the Moon.

Adding Lasix, switching to dirt, and stretching out over 1 1/16 miles are three meaningful changes that could send Belle of Liberty to the winner’s circle for red-hot trainer Joe Sharp, who has gone 4-for-8 (50%) to start the Fair Grounds meet.

Let’s place a win bet on Belle of Liberty.

Selections

• #1 Belle of Liberty (3-1)
• #5 Pashmina (9-2)
• #2 Lexico (7-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #1 Belle of Liberty

Churchill Downs: Race 11: Clark (G2, 1 1/8 miles on dirt, 5:54 p.m. ET)

Kentucky Derby (G1) alum #5 Chunk of Gold (10-1) has improved throughout the year. Last time out, he smashed a 1 1/8-mile $125,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland by 8 1/4 lengths, earning a career-best 104 Brisnet Speed rating.

That number suggests Chunk of Gold has the talent to vie for victory at double-digit odds in the Clark. Let’s try a win bet on the gray colt, then single him to start a small double wager.

Selections

• #5 Chunk of Gold (10-1)
• #9 Magnitude (9-2)
• #3 Hit Show (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Chunk of Gold
• $5 Double: 5 with 4
  Total: $25

Churchill Downs: Race 12: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 6:26 p.m. ET)

#4 Sea Vista (5-2) showed promise in a couple of maiden special weight sprints on dirt last year, finishing second twice against future Belmont (G1) starter Uncaged and next-out Smarty Jones S. winner Mo Quality.

Sea Vista is dropping blinkers and adding Lasix for his three-year-old debut. Those are respectively 33% and 31% winning moves for trainer Brad Cox, who also wins at an eye-catching 26% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more.

We’ll single Sea Vista to conclude our double wager, then bet him to win.

Selections

• #4 Sea Vista (5-2)
• #8 Mizzou (3-1)
• #2 Pitkin (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Sea Vista

Good luck!