Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 12-1 shots at Colonial and Saratoga

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, July 31, at Colonial Downs, Saratoga, and Del Mar, including a horse to single in Colonial’s $1,933 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 10x Points on Harness Racing: Receive 10x points on all wagers at harness tracks (excluding show bets) each Thursday in July.
• 20x Tournament Points Boost: Receive 20x points on all tournament wagers from July 1 through July 31.
• Colonial Downs $2,500 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Play the Late Pick 5 at Colonial Downs each Thursday in July for a chance to split a $2,500 prize pool each promotional day.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $160 Saratoga Feeder to 8/2 Whitney KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $150 Charles Town Feeder to 8/9 Saratoga/Arlington Million MMBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 12:30 p.m. ET)

#11 Velocity Girl (12-1) enters off fast workouts, including half a mile from the starting gate in :47 3/5. The daughter of Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Rock Your World is trained by Madison Meyers, a 25% winner with horses debuting on turf.

Assuming Velocity Girl’s 12-1 morning-line odds hold up, a win bet is in order.

Selections

• #11 Velocity Girl (12-1)
• #6 Hovekoma (7-2)
• #7 Honor Our Country (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #11 Velocity Girl

Saratoga: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 1:44 p.m. ET)

#5 Choppin Brockley (12-1) is a two-year-old first-time starter from the barn of George Weaver. Since 2023, Weaver has compiled a stellar 3-for-4 (75%) record debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Saratoga.

This flashy statistic bodes well for Choppin Brockley’s chances of factoring on Thursday. Let’s place a win bet on the daughter of Known Agenda.

Selections

• #5 Choppin Brockley (12-1)
• #4 Devilish Grin (7-2)
• #6 Great Actress (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Choppin Brockley

Del Mar: Race 2: $150,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 5:31 p.m. ET)

Trainer Doug O’Neill does well with horses debuting in maiden claimers, winning at a 21% rate. Perhaps #2 Bella’s Bro (5-2) can boost that percentage even higher. A son of talented sprinter Yaupon (who is siring 29% winners from first-time starters), Bella’s Bro has put together a long work tab at Santa Anita and Del Mar, highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5.

Let’s bet Bella’s Bro to win, then key him over #1 Very Quiet (5-1) in an exacta. The latter has been gelded since failing to seriously factor in a pair of maiden special weights at Churchill Downs.

Selections

• #2 Bella’s Bro (5-2)
• #1 Very Quiet (5-1)
• #6 Mr. A. P. (2-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Bella’s Bro
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $1,933 Pick 6 carryover (1:57 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Thursday’s $1,933 carryover in the 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs, prepare yourself for a monumentally difficult handicapping challenge.

Before scratches—and counting five also-eligible entrants—the sequence contains 68 horses (averaging about 11.3 per race) and a staggering 1,797,120 possible outcomes. This is not a Pick 6 for the faint of heart.

Every race in the sequence contains at least eight horses, and finding a trustworthy single to build tickets around isn’t easy. That said, we’ll give it our best shot. If you need a single to reduce ticket costs, try #6 Bodecream (9-5) in Race 7, a $10,000 starter allowance taking place over 1 1/4 miles on turf.

Way back in 2020, Bodecream was a talented three-year-old grass runner who won the Texas Turf Mile and placed in the Saranac (G3), Hill Prince (G3), and two other stakes. These days, the eight-year-old gelding is more comfortable competing at lower class levels, but he remains a force to reckon with on his best day. At Colonial Downs last summer, he won a $25,000 allowance optional claimer. And at Penn National earlier this month, he successfully stretched out over 1 1/2 miles to dominate a $10,000 claimer by 4 1/2 lengths.

Bodecream’s stamina could give him the edge he needs to win over 1 1/4 miles at Colonial Downs. Many of his key rivals are milers unproven running this far. If they struggle while stretching out in distance, Bodecream can swallow them up in the homestretch.

Appealing jockey and trainer stats cement Bodecream as the horse to beat. Trainer Jamie Ness strikes at a 30% rate with last-out winners, and jockey Paco Lopez has won at a 24% rate teaming up with Ness over the last two months.

In an ultra-competitive Pick 6, Bodecream looms as a viable single candidate.

Good luck!