Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 15-1 at Turfway Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Dec. 11 at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park, including a ticket for Turfway’s $7,432 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Woodbine 15% Profit Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 for the day) on your winning win, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers at Woodbine Thoroughbred each racing day in December.
• 2 for $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Turfway Park: Hit two exactas at Turfway Park for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each Thursday in December.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $100 Aqueduct Feeder to 12/20 Gun Runner KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 12/27 Oaklawn KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $300 Turfway Park Feeder to 12/13 Turfway Synthetic Betting Championship

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: $50,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:54 p.m. ET)

#7 Empath (4-1) is a first-time starter conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. She’s a daughter of Preservationist (who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters), and she showed some ability when breezing a quick half-mile in :47.44 on Dec. 4.

Let’s place a win bet on Empath and hope her enticing 4-1 morning-line odds hold up.

Selections

• #7 Empath (4-1)
• #2 Sonnynpeaches (2-1)
• #4 Lady Rockula (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Empath

Fair Grounds: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#10 Ocala Gala (5-2) debuted with a respectable third-place finish in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint at Keeneland. She earned an 85 Brisnet Speed rating seven points higher than the par winning number for Thursday’s conditions at Fair Grounds.

Ocala Gala has the pedigree to shine while stretching out over one mile for trainer Cherie DeVaux, a 21% winner with horses running long for the first time. Let’s bet her to win and key her over #6 Real Drama (5-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #10 Ocala Gala (5-2)
• #6 Real Drama (5-1)
• #2 Lewinsky (8-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 Ocala Gala
• $5 Exacta: 10 with 6
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:55 p.m. ET)

#12 American Brass (15-1) is an intriguing longshot. The unraced gelding is a son of Constitution (who sires 15% winners from first-time starters), and he’s trained by Jorge Duarte Jr., a 21% winner with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level.

American Brass enters off a fast half-mile workout in :47 1/5 at Turfway Park, hinting he has the talent to outrun his 15-1 morning-line odds. Let’s try a win bet on American Brass.

Selections

• #12 American Brass (15-1)
• #5 Eske Castle (3-1)
• #11 Court (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #12 American Brass

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park: Race 9: $7,432 Super High 5 carryover (9:55 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Thursday’s $7,432 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park, you’ll have to solve Race 9, a $15,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta.

A large field has entered, but morning-line favorite #6 Mountain High (5-2) looks like a standout worth keying on top of Super High 5 tickets.

Wagers

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 2,8,10,12 with 2,8,10,12 with 2,8,10,12 with 1,2,8,9,10,12 ($72)

Mountain High started his career on turf, finishing sixth and 11th in a pair of one-mile maiden special weights at Ellis Park and Kentucky Downs. Whether it was the surface, distance, class level, or a combination of those factors, Mountain High didn’t run particularly well in either start.

Suffice to say, Mountain High improved dramatically when switching to dirt and dropping down in class and distance for a 6 1/2-furlong $50,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland. He stayed within three lengths of the pace, made an early move into contention, dropped back in midstretch, and then re-rallied to finish second by a neck.

That fine try earned a 76 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number belonging to any horse entered in Race 9. Taking another sharp drop down the class ladder (while sticking to a sprint distance) should help Mountain High visit the winner’s circle in his fourth career start.

Underneath, we’ll emphasize a mix of short-priced runners and longshots.

#2 I Forgot to Ask (3-1) is well worth using. He earned a 74 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing second in a six-furlong $20,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last month, and dropping to the $15,000 level should help his chances.

#8 Point Barrow (12-1) hasn’t factored in two starts against maiden special weight competition on turf at Ellis Park, but switching to Tapeta, dropping in class, and adding blinkers for his first start as a gelding could trigger improvement.

#10 Alter Boy (12-1) debuted in a $30,000 maiden claimer dashing six furlongs at Churchill. He dueled for the lead before tiring to finish sixth. Descending in class should help his chances, and take note, trainer Robert Cline wins at a 20% rate with second-time starters.

#12 Boris Badenov (7-2) carved out the pace in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing one mile over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf before weakening to run fifth. Dropping down in class and distance should make him competitive for a top-five finish.

Good luck!