Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $39,488 Pick 5 carryover at Turf Paradise

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Jan. 22 at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds, along with horses to bet in carryovers at Turf Paradise and Gulfstream.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 2 for $2,000 Exacta Hit It and Split It at Turfway Park: Hit two exactas at Turfway Park for a chance to split a $2,000 prize pool each Thursday in January.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $120 Aqueduct Feeder to 1/31 Southwest KDBC Qualifier
• $50 Fair Grounds Challenge
• $200 Fair Grounds Feeder to 1/25 Fair Grounds/Tampa Bay Downs KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $50 Turfway Park Challenge
• $200 Turfway Park Feeder to 2/7 Sam F. Davis KDBC/NHC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: $35,000 Maiden Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:51 p.m. ET)

On Jan. 2, #8 Running On Time (7-5) nearly won a $50,000 maiden optional claimer racing one mile over the Gulfstream Park turf course. He carved out the pace, accelerated down the homestretch, and battled gamely to finish second by a neck.

Dropping into a $35,000 maiden claimer should make Running On Time tough to beat under five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Let’s single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #8 Running On Time (7-5)
• #4 Little Big Man (4-1)
• #1 Sweet Interlude (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 Double: 8 with 1

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: $10,000 Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 3:21 p.m. ET)

#1 Breezey Bella (9-2) ran better than first appears in a recent $20,000 claimer over this track and distance. She dueled for the lead through a blazing opening quarter-mile in :21.27 before understandably tiring to finish last of five in a race dominated by closers.

Dropping in class for a $10,000 claimer should help Breezey Bella bounce back. In November, she trounced a $12,500 claimer at Gulfstream by 3 1/2 lengths. Drawing the rail could also help her chances, since horses breaking from post 1 have compiled a lofty 18% win rate in five-furlong Tapeta sprints at Gulfstream this meet.

Let’s single Breezey Bella to conclude our double wager, then key her over #6 Omo Ten Girl (4-1) and #8 Chloe’s Toy (9-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Breezey Bella (9-2)
• #6 Omo Ten Girl (4-1)
• #8 Chloe’s Toy (9-5)

Wagers

• $5 Exacta: 1 with 6,8 ($10)

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#7 Eye Catcher (9-2) broke slowly and failed to factor in her debut sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill Downs, finishing eighth. But she’s been freshened since then and may improve while adding Lasix in her second start for trainer Brad Cox.

Take note, Cox wins at a 31% rate with horses racing on Lasix for the first time, and at an identical 31% rate with horses running long for the first time. Throw in the presence of jockey Marcelino Pedroza Jr. (a 33% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months), and Eye Catcher is worthy of a win bet.

Selections

• #7 Eye Catcher (9-2)
• #4 Lady Law (7-2)
• #3 Pure Joy (5-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #7 Eye Catcher

Carryover Watch

Turf Paradise: Race 4: $39,488 Pick 5 carryover (4:39 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Turf Paradise boasts an enticing $39,488 carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5.

A competitive sequence is on the agenda. If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, we recommend taking a stand with #1 Champagne Lane (5-2) in Race 4, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on dirt.

Champagne Lane impressed when debuting in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Sunland Park on Jan. 4. He tracked a solid pace in third before taking over to win by two lengths. He clocked his final sixteenth of a mile in a swift :05.94 to record a final time of 1:02.98, good for an 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

None of Champagne Lane’s rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 82. If Champagne Lane improves at all in his second start for high-percentage trainer Justin Evans, he’ll be tough to beat under hot jockey Luis Valenzuela, a 26% winner at Turf Paradise this meet.

Gulfstream Park: Race 10: $5,760 Super High 5 carryover (4:53 p.m. ET)

The final race on Thursday at Gulfstream Park features a $5,760 carryover in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 10 is a $50,000 maiden optional claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on turf. The race appears ripe for conquest by #3 Big Magic (2-1), who has shown flashes of talent against tougher competition on turf.

Big Magic has competed exclusively against maiden special weight company so far, finishing fifth, fourth, third, and fourth. Her third-place finish came racing 1 3/16 miles at Aqueduct, and she was beaten only a neck in a 12-horse field.

Big Magic made her Gulfstream Park debut in a one-mile maiden special weight on Dec. 27. After dropping back to 10th place (a stark departure from her usual pace-tracking tactics), Big Magic closed ground to finish fourth, beaten three lengths.

The Dec. 27 contest unfolded with a slow early/fast late pace that compromised Big Magic’s chances. Assuming she reverts to pace-tracking tactics on Thursday, Big Magic should work out a perfect trip against this largely paceless field. Dropping down in class cements Big Magic as the filly to beat, so we recommend keying her on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!