Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 8-1 shots at Colonial, Saratoga

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 14 at Colonial Downs and Saratoga, including analysis of Colonial’s $1,112 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Colonial Downs $3,000 Turf Trial: Play the Colonial Downs Turf Trial (involving $10+ win bets in turf races at Colonial Downs) for a chance to split a $3,000 prize pool on Wednesdays and Thursdays in August.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $50 Saratoga Challenge
• $160 Saratoga Feeder to 8/16 Saratoga/King's Plate KDBC/NHC Qualifier
• $200 Charles Town Feeder to 8/23 Travers MMBC/BCBC Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 1:28 p.m. ET)

#8 Chrysalism (5-2) misfired in an off-the-turf maiden special weight at Saratoga last time out, finishing a distant sixth. But in her debut on turf at Aqueduct, she performed much better, pressing the pace before staying on for fourth place in a six-furlong maiden special weight.

As a half-sibling to three turf winners, Chrysalism is bred for grass and should rebound while returning to turf at Colonial Downs. Stretching out in distance may also help her chances since trainer Graham Motion wins at a lofty 26% rate with horses running long for the first time.

Let’s bet Chrysalism to win and key her over #5 Black Rose (3-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Chrysalism (5-2)
• #5 Black Rose (3-1)
• #6 Lovely Grey (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Chrysalism
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 5
  Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:28 p.m. ET)

#9 Vulcan’s Boots (8-1) didn’t show much when debuting in a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park, finishing eighth. But the Equibase result chart notes Vulcan’s Boots was “rowdy in the post parade,” and a slow start didn’t help his chances.

If Vulcan’s Boots acts more professionally before and during his second start, he can improve and vie for victory. Thursday’s field hasn’t come up especially tough on paper, so Vulcan’s Boots won’t have to be a superstar to fit against this group.

Let’s keep our wagering strategy simple with a win bet.

Selections

• #9 Vulcan’s Boots (8-1)
• #4 Culoir (2-1)
• #6 Ramblin (12-1)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #9 Vulcan’s Boots

Saratoga: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:02 p.m. ET)

Since 2023, trainer George Weaver has gone 4-for-6 (67%) debuting juveniles in turf sprints at Saratoga. This bodes well for #2 Belgian (8-1), an unraced two-year-old from Weaver’s barn.

A half-sibling to two turf winners, Belgian has put together a strong work tab in preparation for his first start, highlighted by a bullet five furlongs over the Saratoga main track in 1:00. He also clocked half a mile over the Saratoga training track turf course in :50.

Belgian’s 8-1 morning-line odds are enticing, so let’s place a win bet on the son of Beau Liam, then add a small exacta using #7 Augustinian (7-2) for second place.

Selections

• #2 Belgian (8-1)
• #7 Augustinian (7-2)
• #5 Schwarzenegger (8-5)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #2 Belgian
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 7
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Colonial Downs: Race 3: $1,112 Pick 6 carryover (1:28 p.m. ET)

Thursday’s 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs features a $1,112 carryover.

The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 3, the above-mentioned maiden special weight in which we’re keen to support #8 Chrysalism (5-2), who is returning to turf. However, Pick 6 bettors will want to include #5 Black Rose (3-1) as backup.

Race 4 is a $16,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races. The 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint looks competitive, but slim morning line favorite #1 Hold Up (7-2) boasts appealing credentials. He exits a pacesetting sixth-place finish in a $30,000 claimer for non-winners of two races, and he was claimed out of that effort by hot trainer Michael Stidham, a 30% winner at Colonial this meet and a 22% winner with horses running back for the first time following a claim. Dropping down to the $16,000 level should place Hold Up in win contention under hot jockey Paco Lopez.

In Race 5, we’ve identified #9 Vulcan’s Boots (8-1) as a live longshot for reasons outlined above. But we can’t suggest him as a Pick 6 single. #4 Culoir (2-1) is well worth including after finishing third in his debut over this course and class level, and #6 Ramblin (12-1) could factor too. The latter is a son of Ghostzapper out of a mare by Smart Strike, so he could improve significantly while trying turf for the first time.

Race 6 is a maiden special weight for fillies and mares racing 1 3/16 miles on turf. Local runners like #9 Protective Custody (3-1) and #8 Be Together (9-2) have the credentials to factor, but Kentucky raider #4 Smokin Hot Blonde (6-1) is just as compelling in her four-year-old debut. She placed fourth and fifth in two starts against maiden special weight competition at Churchill Downs last fall, and as a daughter of English Channel, she’s bred to improve while stretching out over 1 3/16 miles.

A huge field is slated to start in Race 7, a 5 1/2-furlong grass allowance for fillies and mares. Based on Brisnet Speed ratings, #12 Waittilmidnitehour (10-1) has a big chance to outrun expectations. She’s posted ratings in the 82-89 range in six of her last seven starts, including a couple of turf sprint wins at Laurel Park last fall. Considering the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions is only 81, a typical performance from Waittilmidnitehour should be good enough to vie for victory.

The Pick 6 wraps up in Race 8, a $16,000 claimer taking place over 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. You can make a case for several runners to challenge for top honors, but #8 Knockanara (7-2) looks like the horse to beat. He’s 3-for-3 on turf this year and exits a victory in a $30,000 starter allowance sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Colonial, so he looks like a great fit for this $16,000 claimer.

Good luck!