Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $26,855 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Oct. 2 at Delaware Park and Horseshoe Indianapolis, along with analysis of Aqueduct’s $26,855 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• Bet $3,000 Get 5% Back on BCBC Seat: Place at least $3,000 in eligible wagers on races from Oct. 1 through Oct. 26 to receive 5% back on your Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge seat purchase through TwinSpires.
• 10x Points at Charlottetown Red Shores: Receive 10x rewards points on all wagers (excluding show bets) in all races at Charlottetown Red Shores from Thursday, Oct. 2 through Thursday, Oct. 30. 

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $40 Belmont at Aqueduct Challenge
• $200 Belmont at Aqueduct Feeder to 10/12 Keeneland BCBC/CBC Qualifier
• $150 Woodbine Feeder to 10/4 Keeneland Fall Challenge Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Delaware Park: Race 1: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 12:45 p.m. ET)

#3 Dr. Patten (8-1) ran reasonably well in her first start on dirt. In a $40,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Monmouth Park, she showed some early speed before tiring to finish fifth by 6 1/4 lengths.

That effort earned a 66 Brisnet Speed rating, which is tied for the highest number posted on dirt by any horse entered in Race 1. Dropping in class for a $20,000 maiden claimer should put Dr. Patten in the hunt for victory at enticing odds, so let’s place a win bet on the bay filly.

Selections

• #3 Dr. Patten (8-1)
• #2 La Chismosa (2-1)
• #1 Java Tales (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Dr. Patten

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

Since 2022, trainer Brad Cox has gone 10-for-25 (40%) debuting juveniles in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This is a great sign for #4 Meelo Time (7-2), a son of successful stallion Not This Time, who sires a lofty 18% winners from first-time starters.

Meelo Time enters off a lengthy series of workouts at Ellis Park in Kentucky, including a bullet five furlongs from the starting gate in 1:01 1/5. He’s slated to be ridden by Fernando De La Cruz, a 26% winner teaming up with Cox over the last two months.

For all these reasons, Meelo Time is worthy of a win bet. We’ll also bet a small exacta using the experienced Cox trainee #8 Black Hornet (9-2) for second place.

Selections

• #4 Meelo Time (7-2)
• #8 Black Hornet (9-2)
• #1 Special Ops (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 Meelo Time (7-2)
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 8
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 4:18 p.m. ET)

#8 Rose Parlor (5-1) is an unraced two-year-old from the hot barn of William Walden, a 30% winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet. Since 2023, Walden has compiled a perfect 3-for-3 (100%) record debuting juveniles in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Rose Parlor has put together a sharp work tab at Turfway Park and Keeneland, and take note, she’s a daughter of Rowayton, who placed in multiple Grade 1 races at age two. All signs suggest Rose Parlor is sitting on a winning debut, so let’s bet her to win and key her over the unraced Cox trainee #6 Life of Joy (7-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #8 Rose Parlor (5-1)
• #6 Life of Joy (7-5)
• #1 Command the Stars (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Rose Parlor
• $10 Exacta: 8 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 3: $26,855 Pick 6 carryover (2:10 p.m. ET)

One of the most enticing carryovers to chase on Thursday can be found at Aqueduct, where the $1 Pick 6 features a non-jackpot prize pool worth $26,855.

Arguably the most straightforward leg of the sequence to handicap is Race 4, a maiden special weight for juveniles racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. There’s very little pace in the race on paper, so #6 Behold the King (4-1) has a strong chance to visit the winner’s circle.

Behold the King ran gamely in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Colonial Downs last month. First, he settled in second place, 5 1/2 lengths behind a runaway leader. Then he took over the lead with more than half the race remaining. Next, the pacesetter fought back and Behold the King dropped to second place. Then Behold the King reclaimed command and opened up a two-length lead. Lastly, he was caught in the final strides by a deep closer and finished second by half a length.

The intensity of Behold the King’s effort is reflected in the Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings he received: 103 and 100. If he sets or presses a modest pace at Aqueduct, he’ll be tough to catch.

The only other runner we recommend including is the first-time starter #2 Special Envoy (5-2), a Chad Brown trainee who sold for $1 million as a yearling.

The feature event in the Pick 6 is Race 5, the Matron (G3) for two-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on turf. The favorites are Rosie’s S. winner #8 Royal Testament (3-1) and Bolton Landing S. conqueror #6 Snow Face Princess (7-2), and both of these accomplished fillies must be used.

But there are also two double-digit longshots worth including.

#2 Snappy Comeback (10-1) made her grass debut in a 6 1/2-furlong $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Kentucky Downs last month, charging from midfield to win by two lengths. She fits well on paper against the Matron field and has upset potential.

#1 Oscar’s Encore (20-1) shouldn’t be underestimated either. She won her debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga by two lengths, after which she finished a troubled sixth (beaten only three lengths) in the one-mile Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies S. A clean trip while cutting back in distance may allow Oscar’s Encore to rebound at enticing odds.

Good luck!