Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Aqueduct’s $50,563 Pick 6 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, April 9, at Keeneland and Aqueduct, including horses to play in Aqueduct’s $50,563 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• $2,000 Win Ladder at Keeneland: Hit $10+ single-horse win wagers at Keeneland to climb the Win Ladder and compete for your share of a $2,000 prize pool each racing Thursday and Friday in April.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $53 Keeneland Bet and Set Feeder to 4/10 Keeneland Grade One Gamble Qualifier
• $250 Keeneland Feeder to 4/12 Keeneland KDBC Qualifier
• $700 Keeneland Feeder to 4/11 Keeneland Grade One Gamble
• $40 Keeneland Challenge
• $100 Keeneland Challenge
• $200 Oaklawn Feeder to 4/18 Keeneland KDBC Qualifier
• $80 Charles Town Feeder to 4/10 Keeneland Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Keeneland: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 1:00 p.m. ET)

#5 Skara Brae (6-5), a daughter of two-time Breeders’ Cup winner Golden Pal, has twice posted bullet three-furlong workouts at Keeneland. She looks ready to win on debut for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, who dominates these early-season juvenile sprints at Keeneland.

Skara Brae’s stablemate, #8 Ruiva (3-1), can battle with #2 Crossfire (9-2) to complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Skara Brae (6-5)
• #8 Ruiva (3-1)
• #2 Crossfire (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 5 with 2,8 ($30)

Aqueduct: Race 4: $75,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 2:44 p.m. ET)

#7 Pulling Threads (8-5) tired after tracking the pace in a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct last month, finishing fifth by 3 3/4 lengths. She fared better in her Dec. 26 debut, running second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight.

Cutting back in distance for her second start of the season may trigger a winning run from Pulling Threads. Take note, she’s trained by Chad Brown, who strikes at a 25% rate with horses running for the second time following a layoff.

#3 Ubique (2-1), shipping north from Gulfstream Park, can round out the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Pulling Threads (8-5)
• #3 Ubique (2-1)
• #1 Jordan’s Love (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 3

Keeneland: Race 6: Allowance (1 1/16 miles on turf, 3:40 p.m. ET)

#7 Kokomotion (7-5) has started twice, both times racing 1 1/16 miles over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course. In a maiden special weight, she stormed from over a dozen lengths off the pace to dominate by 6 1/4 lengths. Then in the Florida Oaks (G3), she stayed within two lengths of the pace, took over the lead after six furlongs, and then weakened late to finish third by 3 1/2 lengths.

There’s plenty of pace entered in this Keeneland allowance, so if Kokomotion reverts to late-running tactics, she’ll be in line for a perfect setup. Dropping in class should also help the daughter of Quality Road rebound.

Let’s key Kokomotion on top of a cold exacta using last year’s Jessamine (G2) fourth-place finisher #10 Soloist (6-1) for second place.

Selections

• #7 Kokomotion (7-5)
• #10 Soloist (6-1)
• #1 May Gray (9-2)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 7 with 10

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct: Race 2: $50,563 Pick 6 carryover (1:38 p.m. ET)

Easily the highlight of Thursday’s seven-race card at Aqueduct is a $50,563 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The Pick 6 spans Race 2 through Race 7. Before scratches, the sequence contains 43 horses (averaging about 7.2 per race) and 134,456 possible outcomes.

We’ve already handicapped one leg of the Pick 6: Race 4, the $75,000 allowance optional claimer in which we rank #7 Pulling Threads (8-5) as the filly to beat in her second start of the season. However, #3 Ubique (2-1) has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale, and Pick 6 bettors may wish to include them both.

Bettors seeking a single to reduce ticket costs are advised to consider #7 Best Impression (5-2) in Race 7, a $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting seven furlongs on dirt.

Best Impression has been in generally strong form since last July, finishing first or second in nine of her last 13 starts. But she’s been especially sharp in her last two starts.

In a $10,000 claimer sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on March 20 at Aqueduct, Best Impression stayed close to the pace before taking over to dominate by 5 1/2 lengths, earning an 80 Brisnet Speed rating. Then, in a seven-furlong $12,500 starter allowance on March 28, she rated behind the leaders before advancing to finish second by one length with a career-best 86 Brisnet Speed rating.

Only one other horse entered in Race 7 has posted a Brisnet Speed rating as high as 86 in her last nine starts: #1 Patty Cakes (7-2), who earned ratings of 94 and 89, winning $15,000 and $25,000 claimers at Parx Racing last fall. But in two starts at Aqueduct during the winter, Patty Cakes finished out of the trifecta and earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 67 and 66, suggesting she’s out of form at the moment.

Best Impression appears well-spotted to add another win to her productive record. We feel confident she’ll deliver a victory to close out the Pick 6.

Good luck!